Preview: UFC 195 ‘Lawler vs. Condit’

Featherweights

Diego Brandao (20-10) vs Brian Ortega (9-0)

THE MATCHUP: After a pair of stunning finishes in his first two UFC bouts, Ortega finds himself in a similar position to that of Brandao some four years ago. In 2011, Brandao was, like Ortega, 24 years old, and he had just finished Dennis Bermudez in spectacular fashion to win Season 14 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Then Brandao ran into Darren Elkins, an older and more experienced fighter with the handy ability to control the whereabouts of the fight, namely by taking and holding down the young Brazilian. In the years since, we have discovered reasons other than inexperience for Brandao’s defeat, but the point remains: It ain’t easy for an action fighter to fulfill high expectations.

Ortega is an extremely exciting fighter but one with a skill set uncommon in the upper echelon. Ortega’s record is studded with impressive submissions, most of which are set up from his guard. Ortega is certainly aggressive enough, both with strikes and with submissions, to compete from his back, but the approach has its obvious pitfalls; Ortega may very well have lost to Thiago Tavares had he not knocked out the fading Brazilian in the third round of their scrap. Unfortunately, Ortega has neither the takedown defense to keep from being put on his back nor the takedowns to go to the ground at will. He is developing nicely as a striker, and he has excellent natural ability, demonstrating a keen sense for distance even at this early stage in his career. His natural athleticism could be a problem, however, as Ortega cannot resist throwing jumping kicks, spinning elbows and wild lead uppercuts, unorthodox strikes best left to the more experienced kickboxers.

Brandao certainly is not known for his reliability, but the notoriously hot-headed Brazilian is dangerous without a doubt. Brandao is a very powerful striker, throwing hands and legs in combination and pressing forward whenever possible. His trademark is the overhand right, but Brandao has a sneaky left hook and a killer head kick in his arsenal, as well. Experience makes him more polished than Ortega in both striking in wrestling. Brandao’s compact frame lends itself well to shot takedowns, as well as lifts and trips in the clinch; and while Ortega may be more likely to play guard, Brandao’s lightning-quick submissions augment his strong top control very well.

THE ODDS: Ortega (-205), Brandao (+175)

THE PICK: Brandao’s biggest issues could play right into Ortega’s hands. First, his tendency to overcommit early and exhaust himself presents a clear window of opportunity for Ortega, who has already shown a knack for late finishes. Second, his tendency to fold under pressure does not bode well against a tough, young, adaptable opponent. Still, Ortega does not have the right skills to push around Brandao. The Brazilian has the sharper, harder striking, the stronger wrestling and the better top-position grappling. These skills will allow him to control where the fight takes place, giving him the breathing room to pace himself and fight smart. Thanks to that control, Brandao wins a unanimous decision.

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