Preview: UFC 195 ‘Lawler vs. Condit’

Lightweights

Abel Trujillo (12-7) vs Tony Sims (12-3)

THE MATCHUP: Trujillo’s is a terrifying visage to see across the cage, but a clinical overview of his fighting style should provide comfort to any savvy fighter. Yes, Trujillo is extremely powerful, particularly in the pocket and in the clinch, where he has a real knack for landing punishing knees, elbows and short punches in between violent jerks with the double collar tie. Though somewhat vulnerable on the ground, Trujillo is a solid wrestler, and his tendency to immediately punish takedown attempts makes it a risky proposition to attack his hips in the first place.

That violent nature is revealed to be something of a front, however, once Trujillo is hit back. Whatever technical improvements Trujillo strives to make between fights vanish the moment he is hit cleanly, at which point he becomes a sort of larger, angrier Leonard Garcia, chasing his opponent with reckless abandon. As his comeback knockout of Jamie Varner goes to show, Trujillo is still incredibly dangerous once that switch is flipped, but he tends to lose all sight of strategy in pursuit of the knockout, often gassing himself out in the process.

Sims is still undeveloped enough that he could be cowed by Trujillo’s rough exterior, but under the guidance of Elevation MMA’s Eliot Marshall, he should have the right game plan to defuse Trujillo’s aggression. Strategy aside, Sims has the necessary skills to contend with a come-forward fighter like Trujillo anyway. Sims is a heavy-handed counterpuncher with a fondness for switching stances, often shifting from one position to the other in the midst of an attack. This does leave him open while leading, but it also allows him to cover large distances with surprising speed. The wrestling in this fight is more or less a wash; both Trujillo and Sims are capable wrestlers who typically avoid wrestling, though Sims does shoot for reactive takedowns now and then.

THE ODDS: Sims (-135), Trujillo (+115)

THE PICK: Trujillo should be able to get in some licks early and he will remain dangerous throughout the contest, but Sims’ cooler head and more conservative style should carry him through. Expect Sims to pick his spots, countering Trujillo from long range as he attempts to close the distance. Sims wins by TKO in the third round.

Last Fights » The Prelims