UFC on ESPN 47 Beforemath: Will Marvin Vettori Capitalize on Created Positions?

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We get more middleweight action with a Top 5 matchup in the UFC on ESPN 47 main event this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Jared Cannonier and Marvin Vettori look to make their case for another title shot with a win. Vettori is an indestructible force with an iron chin, and Cannonier has a nuclear arsenal attached to his shoulders.

Let’s examine the potential paths to victories for the two contenders:

Cannonier Cannot Rely on Power Alone

Cannonier is a shredded power puncher. Coming down from heavyweight all the way to middleweight, a lot of his power remains. His UFC run has been somewhat spotty, but middleweight is truly his home. Since his middleweight debut in 2018, Cannonier has beaten some of middleweight’s best, all while losing only to the elite. At 6-2 in the division, his only losses are to former champion Robert Whittaker and current two-time champion Israel Adesanya. After his loss to Adesanya, he bounced back with a close split decision win over Sean Strickland at UFC Fight Night 216.

In his more recent fights, Cannonier has started an evolutionary transformation that sees him going from being the power puncher to a smarter fighter with more in his tool belt. It started with the loss to Whittaker. We can overlook the Adesanya fight. Anything Cannonier could have learned and implemented in that bout was already forgotten by “The Last Stylebender.” Cannonier fights smarter and uses his footwork to get him in good positions, and we can actually see him setting traps against opponents like Strickland and Derek Brunson. While he has not been able to put together the power with the footwork just yet, Cannonier is getting close.

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Against Strickland, a similar jab-heavy fighter, Cannonier switched stances on the step in to close the gap and get into the pocket. (1) Starting out in orthodox (left hand/foot forward), Cannonier steps in with his rear leg to show Strickland a huge right hand. He even (2) dips down as if to leap into the punch. This causes Strickland to instinctively raise his hands. In typical Strickland fashion, he (3) parries down at the left hand that Cannonier flashes, which opens up the lane for a (4) lead right hook, similar to how Alex Pereira set up Strickland with the opposite blow.

The reason this works so well is because of how prone Strickland is to reacting to any big motion thrown at him. With Cannonier making huge steps in and showing a left cross, Strickland can only hold out on parrying for so long. Vettori is not so predictable and does not bite on these types of feints all the time. He is not immune, however, as we saw against Adesanya, and often just blocks the punches with his head. Cannonier will have to land clean to get the respect from Vettori and get any sort of meaningful reaction out of him.

Vettori’s iron chin, which basically makes him invincible against anything, is likely his best asset, so for Cannonier, body work will be his better option. Going to the body will lower Vettori’s hands and make blocking Cannonier’s bigger shots that much harder. Vettori also likes to plod forward, but if Cannonier can catch him with some cleaner shots, he could have the opportunity to back the Italian up. Once Cannonier gets someone to the fence, he generally likes to take his time and make his opponents make a mistake.

Going back to the Strickland fight, we see how Cannonier sets him up against the fence to help immobilize him. In that fight, Cannonier was 24 of 35 on the low kicks. Cannonier actually does throw a decent number of low kicks, and I’m a big fan of them. Slowing your opponent down, taking away his power and even stopping your foe are all benefits you can gain from kicking the legs.

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In the figure above, we see Cannonier actually faking an exit for Strickland, guiding him out the side where he wants to kick. (1) Cannonier would push him back to the fence, and Strickland, who has shown in the past that he plans to stay nowhere near the cage in this fight, wants very badly to leave. (2) Cannonier drops a little low, dipping to his left, and makes Strickland think a left hook is coming. The way out is to the left, but this is exactly what Cannonier wants, and (3) as Strickland leaves, he gets smashed with a low kick.

Vettori is not the most technical striker in a sense, but with the nature of a southpaw-versus-orthodox matchup, Cannonier will have to rely on his trickery and power to get past him. Kicking from a southpaw stance could give Cannonier some benefit, and I actually look for him to go to southpaw more than usual this fight. Cannonier has a tough fight ahead but so does Vettori.

The Pride of Italy

Here’s a fun fact: Vettori’s last four opponents have been Roman Dolidze, Whittaker, Paulo Costa and Israel Adesanya. They have gone an astonishing 82 of 84 on the low kicks combined. Adesanya is the only one who missed the leg kicks while throwing half of them in total. Knowing that Cannonier likes to come out and kick, Vettori is going to have to do something about it. If he fails to check kicks, it will be a long night of crippling immobility.

Checking the kick is not the only way to keep fighters from kicking. There’s also backing them up and coming forward. Putting a fighter on the back foot is a good way to keep him from being comfortable enough to kick. Vettori is fond of the double jab to cross—a great tool to with which to back up someone.

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Doubling up on the jab works great to catch someone slacking and to back them up, all while having an opportunity for a strong cross. As seen above, a deep step in on a second jab after your opponent has reacted by pulling backwards to the first jab is extra effective and can open up the cross.

With Vettori having such a strong chin, he is not scared to be in the pocket with someone. He often does his best work there. On top of that, we have seen Cannonier make some bad decisions in the past in the pocket that resulted in his being taken down. He has made some good decisions, too, but if Vettori is betting on his chin and trying to pile on damage, he will have to go through the fire and flames to do so.

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Once again, we look at Strickland. In this exchange, (1) Strickland decided he was not stepping back, and Cannonier was coming forward. As Cannonier (2) throws an overhand right, Strickland gets behind his lead shoulder and actually rolls with the punch while looking for a left hook. The combo works nicely together and can be quite effective if you have good timing. Notice how Cannonier’s left hand is down, however. While rolling, Strickland picks up on this and (3) nails Cannonier with a right cross.

Vettori and Teofimo?

Vettori has not shown much of a roll and likes to lean back instead. Vettori needs to be careful of this and not get caught leaning, or he risks Cannonier stepping through a punch.

With this being a southpaw-versus-orthodox matchup, there are some nuances that could make or break this fight. We were treated to a boxing masterclass on June 10 with Teofimo Lopez dethroning incumbent junior welterweight champion Josh Taylor, a southpaw. Vettori is the southpaw in this case, but the techniques work just the same, only mirrored. Teofimo provides a great template on how to handle an open-stance matchup like the one Vettori faces.

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Cannonier is likely going to want to use his size to his advantage. For Vettori, the smaller fighter, keeping Cannonier off of him will be important. Lopez deals with this in a rather MMA manner. We see Taylor (1) step in for the outside advantage and overwhelm Lopez. (2) As Taylor steps in, Lopez keeps his lead arm between himself and his opponent. Lopez then physically (3) pushes Taylor off and away to keep the distance on his terms.

Now, this is not foolproof and does not necessarily stop a takedown. This path would be better suited if Cannonier is insistent on getting in the pocket and landing shots. If Cannonier wants a takedown, then the usual defense will be ideal. Remember the outside-foot advantage, as it is something Vettori uses well. He plagued Costa with it.

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Early in the fight, Vettori established control of the outside-foot position on Costa and it really threw things off for the Brazilian. (1) Jabbing to step in and not eat return fire, Vettori will (2) hop in with his lead foot to the outside of Costa. This lines the left hand of Vettori up, and Costa can either cover up, circle into the punch or circle backwards over the tripping point of the Italian’s lead leg. Costa eats a left, and to avoid any power shots coming back his way, (3) Vettori pivots out to his right and away from the power right of his adversary.

Circling away from the power hand will be incredibly important for Vettori. Cannonier hits harder than anyone he has ever faced. Before Vettori’s body work starts to kick in, another staple of his gameplan, he will want to make sure to stay clear of the big punches from Cannonier. Circling back to the double jab from earlier and the outside-foot position and combining it all in a pot making a nice roux, we come to our final diagram.

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Vettori will inevitably back Cannonier up with all the activity like jabs and crosses, crowding with the footwork and body work, and will (1) be in a position like he is against Costa above. Costa is leaning against the fence and Vettori will step into the pocket. Instead of stepping in on the jab, Vettori (2) will split the guard with a lead uppercut underneath Costa’s guard. He will then (3) step in and overwhelm Costa. With the outside-foot position and against the fence, Costa can only exit to the right. Costa did a great job framing off of Vettori to exit that way, and the Italian did not have an opportunity to throw. However, it will be a necessity for Vettori to capitalize on these positions he has created. He has to know where his opponent can go.

The path to Adesanya is long, and it is even longer for Vettori, who has already lost to him twice. With that said, knocking off a contender like Cannonier just eliminates one more option for the champ to choose.