UFC on ABC 4 Beforemath: Can Jailton Almeida Break Through the Static?

This weekend, the Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to ABC with a heavyweight showdown between the hard-hitting Jairzinho Rozenstruik and relative newcomer to the division, Jailton Almeida. The fight will sort out the heavyweight division even further as it comes to grips with its new king, Jon Jones. Almeida and Rozenstruik will look to come out on top and make their case heard for a shot at the elite of the division.

“UFC Charlotte” has sizable implications for the heavyweight division and could eliminate a contender for the foreseeable future. That’s why we are here with Beforemath! Let’s get down to the nitty gritty.

Jailton Almeida: The Star of Today’s Show

To be honest, I’m not really excited about the thought of breaking down Rozenstruik. In fact, we aren’t going to be doing that today. Instead, I want to take time to focus on Almeida (18-2, 7 KOs, 11 subs), the much more interesting fighter. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has had a quick rise in the heavyweight division. After running through Danilo Marques at light heavyweight and then Parker Porter in his UFC heavyweight debut, Almeida returned with wins over Anton Turkalj and Shamil Abdurakhimov. A win over Rozenstruik would put him in the conversation about title contenders, and heavyweight needs more of those.

There are two reasons I want to focus on Almeida today. First, I don’t find Rozenstruik all that interesting. He hits hard and doesn’t like to initiate. Second, Almeida isn’t as well known to the reader, and I feel like he deserves some shine.

Looking at this matchup, first we must ask ourselves, “How can Almeida lose this fight?” In the past, he’s shown himself to be relentless but reckless. In the Abdurakhimov fight, the first thing he did was get his kick caught and countered with a right. This will not be acceptable against Rozenstruik, for whom 12 of his 13 career wins have come by knockout. His fastest was in nine seconds against Allen Crowder. It’s very clear that in a Rozenstruik fight, things can change very rapidly and very violently.

Almeida likes to box to enter his takedowns. He will set you up with the hands, offering several combinations, and then feint and shoot. Against Rozenstruik, he will not want to get too wild and crazy. Keep it simple and keep it fast—that is the mantra Almeida should follow at “UFC Charlotte.”

Rule No. 1 when fighting Rozenstruik: Don’t get bonked.

Key to Victory: Inside the Clinch

Almeida is incredibly relentless in the clinch. The only other fighter who has a similar level of chain wrestling in the heavyweight division is Curtis Blaydes, whom we will be visiting in a moment. Once Almeida gets in on your hips and gets against the fence, he will not stop until he gets you on the ground and into a position from which he’s comfortable attacking.

In our first figure above, we see the speed and persistence of Almeida. Seconds into his fight with Abdurakhimov, Almeida wants no more of the striking and (1) will shoot at the hips. To get there, he feints up high and changes levels quickly and shoots to the outside of Abdurakhimov’s right hand, his power hand. This will come into play with Rozenstruik. Shoot to his power side and he will end up a corpse on the mat a la Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis. (2) Almeida will get to the hips with his speed and athleticism and push Abdurakhimov to the fence. Notice where his head is, to the right of Abdurakhimov. Again, head placement is key when fighting a power puncher.

As Almeida has his foe pushed against the fence, he will (3) post on his left leg to get to a position where he can lift. He keeps the pressure on Abdurakhimov against the fence so he can’t escape and has his hands locked. This is complete control. (4) Almeida picks up the 263-pound man and (5) goes completely airborne on the dump for a monster slam.

With Rozenstruik being such a heavy hitter and so large, Almeida will want to pursue the takedown and not put himself in a bad position while doing so, all while not expending too much energy should this fight go on longer than he wants. How to do that? How does Almeida safely get to a clinch and then initiate a takedown all while using less energy than Rozenstruik? For this, we go to that previously mentioned fight with Blaydes.

When Blaydes and Rozenstruik fought, the key to the fight was the grappling. Could Rozenstruik handle Blaydes’ wrestling? The answer was no, and it became apparent early on. (1) Blaydes, like Almeida against Abdurakhimov, got in on the hips of Rozenstruik and pressed him into the cage. Rozenstruik framed off the left arm but Blaydes was already getting ready for the trip. Blaydes (2) reaps his right leg around the outside of Rozenstruik’s and (3) pulls Rozenstruik down and towards that leg. The tripping point is there and (4) Blaydes completes the takedown.

This is nearly the same thing we talked with last week on Beforemath and Aftermath concerning Henry Cejudo. Cejudo utilized the inside trip against Demetrious Johnson and again against Aljamain Sterling. Almeida is no stranger to these types of takedowns, and at heavyweight where these fighters fall much more easily due to their sheer mass, Almeida has a lot of success with it, even in the center of the cage, like Cejudo prefers.

Figure three above shows just that. This fight is from Almeida’s Contender Series fight and punched his ticket to the UFC. The initial trip goes as follows. (1) Almeida is in the clinch and has the body lock. Mirroring Blaydes earlier, (2) Almeida reaps the left leg around Nasrudinov’s right. With Nasrudinov on one leg, (3) Almeida falls backwards and (4) secures the takedown.

Once he’s on the ground, Almeida is a terror. He chases submissions and constantly hunts the mount. His ground-and-pound is quite brutal as well. He’s prone to land elbows to bust up his opponents to either soften them up for the submission or just go for the finish if he cannot get the back.

Circling back, Almeida will have to remain safe to get these takedowns. All of this is theoretical if he cannot get to the ground or if he gets caught coming in. But if he gets to the ground, Almeida can control Rozenstruik relatively well. To see him get to mount against Rozenstruik would be even better.

Winning in Charlotte would give Almeida an opportunity at the Top 10 of a heavyweight division desperate for contenders for Jones. With some ranked matchups, Almeida could wreak havoc. Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa and Alexander Volkov are all fun potential matchups for Almeida that could put him above the top. Then we’re likely talking title eliminators, which means Ciryl Gane and Sergei Pavlovich. Winning brings good things and Almeida can grasp just that at “UFC Charlotte.”