The Bottom Line: Wakeup Call

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It has been a sudden and dramatic fall for James Krause—about as sudden and dramatic as they come in MMA without a fist or foot colliding with a jaw. The popular coach and former fighter seemed to be thriving, leading a successful gym and, of course, gambling podcast. Now, after the fallout from a suspicious Nov. 5 bout between Darrick Minner and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke, Krause finds himself on the verge of becoming a pariah.

In less than a month, we’ve seen much in terms of fallout. Minner was released by the Ultimate Fighting Championship; Krause was suspended by the Nevada State Athletic Commission; the NSAC investigation into Krause and the Minner-Nuerdanbieke deepened; Ontario and Alberta banned UFC betting; and the UFC announced fighters coached by or training at Krause’s gym were prohibited from participating in UFC events. There has never been a comparable punishment doled out by the UFC even for the most egregious of dangerous misconduct, which speaks to the danger the organization sees in a scandal that threatens the public perception as to the integrity of the sport.

The reaction towards Krause in many circles over this series of events has been rage and fury. If Krause did what he is suspected of doing—betting and potentially tipping off others to bet against at least one fighter he knew to be injured going into a fight—he will have caused some serious headaches for MMA supporters and, in particular, those who like to gamble on the sport. It’s a predicament that is not likely to resolve itself any time soon, and Krause’s name is likely to hold a negative connotation in MMA circles for a very long time to come.

With that said, there’s a good chance we’ll eventually look back at this moment and think Krause inadvertently did a service for the sport. That’s certainly not a defense of any of Krause’s alleged behavior but simply an acknowledgment that this controversy brought about a reckoning that was necessary to address inevitable dangers as MMA and gambling becoming more and more intertwined. Moreover, that reckoning could have come in a much worse form than what the sport is dealing with right now. In short, it’s a good time and place to examine the dangers present with widespread betting on fights and to set up protections to make manipulation less likely moving forward.

MMA is a sport that is naturally susceptible to manipulation by bettors. As an individual sport, each athlete has a much more determinative role in the result than a team sport. There are major fights pretty much every week and a constant flow of betting opportunities. Most of the fighters don’t make that much money, providing greater motive than in sports where athletes would be risking millions if they got involved in manipulation of results. Most fighters also tend to go into fights dinged up to various degrees, and that information is not publicly catalogued in the way that it is in the NFL and other sports. All these factors existed with Krause and all these factors would exist without Krause, ready to potentially cause problems. That’s before sportsbooks became heavily involved in advertising on MMA telecasts, increasing the flow of gambling money even more.

Minner-Nuerdanbieke is a wakeup call that there needs to be an effort by MMA promotions and regulating bodies to try to combat the potential for odds and fight manipulation. The solutions aren’t easy and aren’t obvious in most cases, but a strong effort is likely to be made because of the threat that has been presented. That’s a big positive. At the heart of any positive solution is going to be greater transparency at all levels, but deterrence and awareness are also important.

In addition to the timing of this controversy being good to bring about change, the circumstances are also much better than they could be. Certainly, it’s never good to have stories on major sports websites about MMA betting chicanery, but this was a low-profile fight on a low-profile show, and the coverage has reflected that reality. It’s a major story to MMA fans and MMA bettors, but it has largely flown under the radar with the greater public. That gives the MMA community the opportunity to address the problem before it blows up in a bigger way. It’s not hard to imagine something like this happening with a more well-known fighter or more well-known camp and outside forces responding in reactionary ways like they have in the past.

Just because the opportunity is there to make things better doesn’t mean it will be taken. It’s possible the commissions and promotions largely brush this aside, punish a few individual parties and don’t take substantive steps to make this less likely to happen in the future. If that’s what happens, it will be unfortunate because next time the fallout will almost certainly be greater and harder to contain.