The Bottom Line: The Canary in the Coal Mine

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One of the biggest stories in mixed martial arts over the last couple of years has been the frequent departures of high-end Ultimate Fighting Championship talent to other organizations, principally Bellator MMA. Those moves have changed the sport’s landscape. Bellator has a deeper talent roster than ever before while the UFC doesn’t have overwhelming supremacy in many weight classes like it once did. The latest UFC departure was 31-year-old former Dream and Strikeforce champion Gegard Mousasi. He isn’t the biggest star to depart the UFC, nor is he necessarily the best fighter. However, Mousasi’s departure symbolizes a troubling trend for the UFC more than any other athlete to have left.

The UFC has many advantages going for it when it comes to signing upper-echelon MMA fighters. It has the biggest pay-per-view events and thus can offer with pay-per-view points the largest paydays for fighters that make it to the top of the sport. There is prestige that comes with fighting for the UFC, where it’s significantly easier to be recognized as the best fighter in the world. You get to test yourself against the highest level of competition. For years, the combination of these factors meant that very few of the world’s best fighters elected to sign elsewhere. However, a perfect storm of factors recently have converged to reverse that trend.

At the heart of the matter is that the UFC’s will to lock up all the best fighters has diminished. Under Lorenzo and Frank Fertitta, the UFC made it a point of pride to lock up as much of the best talent as possible. The only real exception was fighters with styles deemed to be dull and unmarketable. Under new ownership, there doesn’t appear to be that same will. Massive interest payments have to be made and cuts have resulted. The UFC is much more willing to pick and choose which top fighters it wants rather than trying to keep them all on board if at all possible.

Beyond UFC resolve, there are other factors contributing to the exodus of talent. Viacom has awoken, electing to put real money behind Bellator, its MMA enterprise. It’s easier to keep talent under control when there isn’t another major bidder. There is also frustration on the part of many fighters over the amount they are paid by the UFC, as well as the disastrous Reebok deal that hasn’t ended up satisfying a single party. The UFC is perceived as the villain by many fighters, and it has made them more apt to leave.

While more talent has left UFC in recent years, it to this point has generally fit a pattern: fighters with stories that it can at least be argued have already been written. In MMA, of course, fighters can still rebound after being counted out. Just ask Robbie Lawler or Randy Couture. However, the UFC generally doesn’t allow fighters to leave when they are still perceived to be on the ascent. There’s no denying that Ryan Bader, Phil Davis, Benson Henderson, Rory MacDonald, Kyoji Horiguchi and Roy Nelson are high-quality fighters. With that said, they didn’t leave the UFC with a lot of unfinished business. Henderson was champion at lightweight who left that division after three losses to top contenders. MacDonald and Horiguchi earned title shots but were turned back in their challenges. Davis, Nelson and Bader had fallen short in big fights in a way that made it feel unlikely they would be UFC champions going forward.

Mousasi is different. He has five wins in a row, including four straight via knockout or technical knockout. He looks to be on top of his game. Mousasi is one of the top five fighters in the middleweight division -- along with Michael Bisping, Robert Whittaker, Yoel Romero and Luke Rockhold -- and he hasn’t fought any of the other four. He was going to be a big part of sorting out of the division in the next couple years, and it would have been great fun to see how he fared against those other elite fighters. Instead, fans are simply left wondering.

There is a key issue at play here that goes well beyond just losing some marketable fights. The foundation of the UFC’s business is the continual settling of who the best fighter is at each weight class. When there is widespread doubt, it becomes much harder to create larger-than-life stars. That in turn forces greater emphasis on personalities, which creates a counterproductive downward cycle. The UFC’s desire to minimize fan doubt as to the best is a big part of why the organization has always put an emphasis on retaining premium talent. It has made it even more important to retain top title contenders who haven’t fought the other top challengers. Fighters like Mousasi have the potential to linger in fans’ minds. If he continues to excel in Bellator, many fans may perceive him to be better than the UFC middleweight champion; and if he’s perceived to be better than the UFC middleweight champion, how important is it to hold that UFC middleweight title anyway?

Mousasi is of course but one fighter. It will take many more to solidify the perception that UFC championships don’t always symbolize the best fighters in the world. Still, it’s a major step in the wrong direction and one that accentuates a potential pitfall more than any of these other departures. As such, the UFC’s decision to allow Mousasi to leave was a major mistake.