The Bottom Line: Out with a Bang, or a Whimper?

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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Given what fun the Diaz brothers have brought to the sport of mixed martial arts, it’s a shame that our time enjoying their assorted antics and unique fighting styles likely near the end. Nick Diaz appeared disinterested in fighting Robbie Lawler in 2021 and hasn’t won since he beat B.J. Penn in 2011. Nate Diaz, meanwhile, faces the final fight on his Ultimate Fighting Championship contract, after which he looks focused on the financially lucrative celebrity boxing circuit. At 37 and with only one win since his upset of Conor McGregor in 2016, there’s little reason to expect we’re going to get another big run from the eight-time “Fight of the Night” winner.

With Saturday potentially the final Octagon appearance for the Diaz clan, it naturally leads to questions about legacy; and the Diaz legacy is an interesting one to unpack. For some, they’re likely central characters in the story of MMA over the past 20 years. From Nick’s wild brawl with Takanori Gomi in Pride Fighting Championships that culminated in a gogoplata submission and Nate’s middle finger triangle of Kurt Pellegrino to the big-money showdowns Nick had with Georges St. Pierre and Nate had with McGregor, they’ve been part of so many moments that have captivated MMA fans.

On the other hand, there’s also a case to be made that while they have clearly had fun and notable careers, they aren’t defining fighters of their generation. This argument would note that they never held UFC championships and that they were the B-sides in pretty much all of their biggest fights. There’s a difference between the true needle movers of the sport and fun characters like a Donald Cerrone or Chan Sung Jung.

The differing perspectives on the UFC 279 pay-per-view speak to the divergent views on just how relevant the Diaz brothers are. Some media and MMA fans have spoken of Nate-Khamzat Chimaev as one of the biggest UFC pay-per-views of the year. The UFC has shown confidence in the fight, as well, by putting it on pay-per-view without any accompanying title fights and an interesting but unspectacular main card.

There are reasons to think this will be a big event by the time we reach it. There’s a compelling built-in story with Nate looking to upset the emerging monster and then ride off into free agency with all the leverage in the world. This is likely particularly intriguing for those who view the UFC’s treatment of its fighters negatively and root for opportunities when fighters can show up management. Chimaev’s most recent fight against Gilbert Burns in which he showed heart but also vulnerability provides encouragement for those holding out hope Diaz can shock the world.

Optimism about the box-office appeal in the fight is far from universal, however. The long odds favoring Chimaev at 10- or 11-to-1 speak to the skepticism about Diaz’s chances. There doesn’t appear to be anything resembling the juice for this fight that there was for Diaz’s bouts with McGregor or the novel BMF battle with Jorge Masvidal at Madison Square Garden. It’s being covered and discussed by many as nothing more than a standard-level pay-per-view main event.

The lack of clarity about what this fight will be makes it a great litmus test for where Diaz stands with the general public. This fight isn’t going to be the big test for where Chimaev stands in his division. Burns was arguably a bigger test last time out. Whatever curiosity there is in Chimaev’s rise—and there has been a definite buzz building for some time—this isn’t the fight to pay off that intrigue. The intrigue centers on Diaz: What sort of test he can provide Chimaev and can he pull off the startling upset? Selling the fight depends heavily on how much fans care about Diaz’s journey, with little relation to the journey of his opponent.

Diaz has the chance to prove himself in the Octagon once again, but just as much, he has the opportunity to demonstrate to the UFC that it has undervalued him and that it is making a mistake letting him go to free agency. He can lose the fight and still score that victory, because Diaz has shown many times that he retains his appeal even in defeat. Whether Diaz goes out with a bang or a whimper—as much in terms of how the fight resonates as how he performs—will go a long way to defining how he was always perceived.