The Bottom Line: Fluid Perspectives

It doesn't get bigger than this - UFC President @DanaWhite confirms that @JonnyBones will take on @Ciryl_Gane for the 𝐔𝐍𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐏𝐔𝐓𝐄𝐃 heavyweight championship at #UFC285 🏆

[ March 4 | @TMobileArena | Tix On Sale Jan 20 at https://t.co/LJfHcNZo6J ] pic.twitter.com/oUpfPUMYXp

— UFC (@ufc) January 15, 2023

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It’s Christmas morning. You’ve been hoping for months your parents would get you the new Grand Theft Auto. It seems unlikely given how your mom feels about all the violence she’s heard is in the game, but there’s nothing more you want to be doing than running over virtual pedestrians in a tank. You find a gift that looks conspicuously like a PlayStation 2 game and rip it open with uncontainable excitement to discover… Jak and Daxter. Now, there’s nothing wrong with Jak and Daxter. It’s a well-made platformer with an adorable weasel-looking creature that looks like it will be fun in its own right, but it’s hard to hide your disappointment that you’ll have to go over to a friend’s house if you want to play some GTA.

That’s about how many MMA fans feel today with the announcement that after years of buzz surrounding a Jon Jones-Francis Ngannou superfight, Jones will be returning to action in March to face Ciryl Gane. It’s exciting to finally have Jones back and Gane is certainly a worthy opponent, but it has been a long time since MMA fans have had a real dream fight to look forward to; and we’re going to have to wait a while longer. Jones-Gane has nothing resembling the cache of Jones-Ngannou—the highly skilled longtime light heavyweight king against the ultra-powerful undisputed ruler of the heavyweight division.

That the Ultimate Fighting Championship made a public spectacle of announcing Ngannou is no longer under contract and even went so far as to laughably claim he doesn’t want to take on top competition speaks to the hard feelings that exist following an extended period of negotiations. Neither side is likely that keen to deal with the other right now. That’s perfectly fine and it makes sense for both sides, for one fight that is.

Ngannou has pursued free agency for one specific reason, because he knows how much money there is to be made in a one-off fight with Tyson Fury, the first ever matchup between the No. 1 MMA heavyweight and the No. 1 boxing heavyweight. Even if that fight doesn’t do as well on pay-per-view as Ngannou-Jones would do—it might, but it’s not a given—boxing pays its top stars so much more than MMA that it would still be much more lucrative for Ngannou than any UFC fight.

It’s also a better bet for Ngannou than previous MMA fighter forays into boxing, because the MMA fighter’s best chance is landing a one-off power shot, and the odds of that happening go up the more powerful you are. Fury has proven himself a better boxer than Deontay Wilder, but Wilder almost beat him the first time because of that element. Ngannou’s odds are low, but they’re better than Conor McGregor’s were against Floyd Mayweather. All in all, it’s a very attractive option for “The Predator.” Fury has other options between Oleksandr Usyk and Joe Joyce, but he has expressed interest in an Ngannou bout and the fight would do big box-office business. Meanwhile, the UFC has an attractive fight of its own with Jones’ return against Gane.

The key question is what happens after Ngannou fights Fury. Assuming Ngannou loses, there wouldn’t be the same curiosity for him in another boxing bout. Other MMA promotions have expressed interest in Ngannou, probably in significant part for the publicity, but financially, his fighting for Bellator MMA or the Professional Fighters League makes no sense. Without the UFC name or an obvious opponent, he couldn’t draw at the level needed to justify a bigger paycheck than what UFC offers to fighters like Ngannou who move numbers on pay-per-view.

From the UFC perspective, Ngannou will likely still have a lot of value after a boxing foray. His name will become bigger from the publicity, and a loss to Fury under different rules wouldn’t be likely to affect his marketability much. It certainly didn’t hurt McGregor. If Jones beats Gane, Jones-Ngannou will be even bigger than it was before and much bigger than Jones against any other opponent. If Gane beats Jones, Jones-Ngannou would still be big. More importantly, Ngannou’s return would help to reestablish credibility in the UFC heavyweight title, which is badly hurt by a strong champion leaving without dropping the belt.

All of this is to say both sides will still have a lot for each other after Ngannou satisfies his boxing itch. They will also have more incentive to negotiate then than they do now because each will have fewer viable options. Both sides would be wise to recognize that. They may be feeling happy to move on from the other partner right now, but their perspectives are likely to be quite different in the not-so-distant future. They would be better off with a separation than a divorce.