Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 58 ‘Perez vs. Taira’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship continues fulfilling its contractual obligations to ESPN with another card at the UFC Apex, just a week removed from the WWE putting on quite a show in the same building. Ladders, tables and chairs will not be on the menu for this event, but a huge upset might be brewing. Join the UFC on ESPN 58 edition of Prime Picks, as we surf through the lineup and pick a couple of reasonable favorites while white-knuckling through a few fights destined for stoppages.

Tatsuro Taira (-195)

Bouncing back from a rough skid with a dramatic knockout of Matheus Nicolau, Alex Perez reminded fight fans he is still a danger to much of the flyweight division. No belt is on the line, but this rare 125-pound headliner has some decent stakes. The Californian is fast and aggressive, and he has some pop on his punches that some seem to forget. He battles a surging Japanese up-and-comer in Taira, who is working up the division properly rather than making huge steps up in competition. With his grappling so far superior to that of his opponents, Taira becomes a worthy proposition with odds any less than about -250.

From a wrestling standpoint, Perez stacks up well against Taira, sporting a high takedown defense rate and propensity to scramble. Those who have grounded Perez largely could not do so for long, but that would be for two reasons: He would escape, or he would fall into submission. In a grappling match, Taira would have the upper hand by himself, and he also has exceptionally accurate striking and a calm demeanor. Compared to the more frantic Perez, the Japanese man is less likely to tire as the rounds progress.

Taira utilizes a measured pace, taking advantage of openings and leading with a sharp jab. With five extra inches in the arms, Taira can bust up the oncoming Perez, who would rather turn the technical matchup into a wild one. At his age, it is surprising that Taira displays such composure in the cage, and he has come through adversity, like an Edgar Chairez knockdown, without panicking to take the fight back over. Perez is a dangerous attacker for as long as he is in the fight, and the opposing line of his getting a stoppage at +300 is only worth a look if one wants to maximize value on their pick. Otherwise, Taira should have the advantage in all areas of the fight but sheer power, and as long as he does not make a glaring mistake, he can cruise to a late finish.

Gabriella Fernandes (-165)

In this new era of the UFC where the promotion repeatedly signs losing fighters from good bouts on Dana White’s Contender Series, those competitors are, therefore, debuting coming off of losses. While Carli Judice showed against Ernesta Kareckaite that she could hang, keeping up a solid pace and not wilting when things did not go her way, she did not win. The 25-year-old might have plenty of promise, but three first-round knockouts on the regionals against a trio of women with records well below .500 does not a contender make. While Tereza Bleda and Jasmine Jasudavicius could exploit the Brazilian’s weak takedown defense, Judice may not be able to replicate the feat, making the moderate favorite Fernandes a decent betting option.

Judice, at 25, has plenty of room to grow, and she will have a slight size advantage in both height and arms. She may prefer to trade hands and feet, but if she can land a takedown, it might be the way to prevail. On the other hand, Fernandes will almost certainly fight with all her might to remain standing, and she has not shown a propensity to use her wrestling. If Judice gets tagged while in kickboxing range, she could choose to change levels, and Fernandes will need to keep her back away from the cage so she does not hit the mat. Judice may be too green to realize she has a safety valve at her disposal, and the longer it stays on the feet, the greater the chances for Fernandes.

DOUBLE PLAY (-101)

Perez-Taira Lasts Under 4.5 Rounds (-210)

Jeka Saragih-Westin Wilson Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-285)

Even with 12 fights on the bill, reasonable options are scarce. Putting money down on, for example, a welterweight contest where both fighters have lost two of three is not an enticing idea. Instead, we turn two a pair of fights that should end via stoppage while double dipping in the main event. Even if the initial play above calls for a moneyline option on the 15-0 fighter, tossing in on another lane that expects a finish can cover if Perez pulls something off. Either way, the flyweights likely will not go to the final bell, and this line keeps a very late stoppage in play.

The anchor leg of the parlay gives some extra wiggle room if the two headliners fight into the fourth round. The same cannot be said about the other side of this accumulator, but an under is fair, given that Saragih and Westin combine for 29 finishes across their 30 wins. Drilling that down, Westin has seen three of his 27 pro outings pass the over of 1.5 rounds, and six overs have hit on Saragih’s ledger. Win or lose, the last 13 appearances for Wilson have ended in the first round. This one has the makings of doing the same, kicking off this two-line option right.