Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 44 ‘Holloway vs. Allen’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship ships off to Kansas City, Missouri, for a Saturday showcase with a few key matchups up and down the roster. No bout in this closely matched event has more relevance than the marquee affair at 145 pounds, but a pivotal flyweight fight inexplicably buried on the prelims may in fact hold the most immediate championship implications. With no betting favorite on this 14-fight event seeing odds above -275, the lines are close, but there is still value to be had. Join the UFC on ESPN 44 edition of Prime Picks, where we keep the faith in a former champ, point to a pair of aging vets who should not be counted out and expect a combined 80-year-old affair to go the full 15 minutes.

Max Holloway (-175)

While the last few years have not entirely gone his way, the four losses in seven outings for Holloway have come in championship bouts. “Blessed” lost the trilogy to Alexander Volkanovski without earning a single victory, regardless of how scoring media members and fans saw the second match. It has been nearly 10 years since the Hawaiian has fallen short in a non-title fight, with the loss to a little-known quantity named Conor McGregor. Ample five-round experience against a fighter who has never competed beyond Round 3 will give Holloway an edge, coupled with his unflappable chin and nearly impregnable submission defense. Arnold Allen is a worthy contender, and it is unfortunate he had to meet Holloway while riding a 10-fight winning streak before getting a crack at the throne. This favored line for the former champ still has some value to it.

Britain’s Allen might have been forced to face Holloway instead of joining the interim title fight taken by Yair Rodriguez and Josh Emmett due to the nature of his last win. While he was performing well against Calvin Kattar in the first round, a catastrophic knee injury was what ultimately did “The Boston Finisher” in rather than Allen’s dominance. Allen very well could have won that fight on his own merits, as he was outstriking the striker, but to quote Holloway, it is what it is. Allen, a decent grappler with some power in his fists, is extremely defensively sound on the feet and mat alike. He has never faced an offensive juggernaut like Holloway. That may not be fair to impose on Allen, as there is no one quite like Holloway, statistically speaking. It will be a tough test and one he will likely need to overcome with strategic pressure and effective combinations to varying targets.

The men to beat Holloway over the last 10 years have largely done so by frustrating the active, ultra-high-volume striker. Volkanovski did so with crisp counterpunching, frequent leg kicks and more movement and footwork than one could shake a stick at. Keeping up with Holloway is an extremely tough ask, and only once in his 10-fight UFC run has Allen eclipsed the 100 significant strike mark. Compare this to “Blessed,” who has done this an otherworldly 14 times thus far, and you have a relentless attacker with a virtually unlimited gas tank. Unless Allen is able to hit Holloway with something he has not seen before or stifle him on the mat for long stretches to take the boxing out of the equation, this may be a reminder performance that Holloway needs.

Edson Barboza (+150)

Taking on Billy Quarantillo, a man with weaponized cardio and measured volume in the same stratosphere as the aforementioned Holloway, Barboza is coming in as a betting underdog. On paper, the Brazilian has struggled of late, with just two official wins in the last seven walks to the cage across two divisions. The defeats to Dan Ige and Paul Felder were quite questionable, but superior power strikers Justin Gaethje and Giga Chikadze left no doubt. If you cannot take him down and keep him there or stay wise to Barboza’s potent and diverse arsenal, it may be rough sledding for opponents. Even at the age of 37, this style matchup is still one that Barboza can feast on, especially given how hittable Quarantillo is in his fights.

There is no doubt that Barboza, the vaunted striker who has performed a veritable cornucopia of knockout varieties, has lost a few steps. The move to featherweight is one many questioned, as some believed a shift to welterweight might be better for his long-term health and performance prospects. Instead, the 5-foot-11 kickboxer cuts more weight, and this resulted in Bryce Mitchell of all people dropping him with a speedy right hand; it was Mitchell’s first and only knockdown on the roster to date. The Brazilian still maintains his power, and even if his timing is not as precise as days gone by, he has plenty of weapons to utilize. Barboza can turn the aggression of adversaries against them, especially with quick counter right hooks or debilitating leg kicks as they plant to strike him. It might be a rough opening round for Quarantillo, as the Brazilian gets into his groove and his damaging blows pay off dividends quickly. Providing he can get past a late surge in volume from Quarantillo and consistently sting and stun him with shots, the once-feared vet can pick up the upset.

Clay Guida (+220)

It is remarkable that at age 41 Guida still has the kind of gas tank that could carry him through a seven-round fight without breathing too hard. A 15-minute endeavor is a walk in the park for Guida, whose main weakness tends to be getting caught early when dry. Wrestling is where Guida would prefer to spend his time, or at least forcing foes to fight off attempts and get back to their feet. This happens to be a matchup where the heavy underdog can exploit Garcia’s questionable energy reserves and grappling defense. At over 2-to-1 odds, Guida is still worthy of consideration in this pairing.

In his last five fights, Garcia has strung together 24 takedowns while succumbing to five on the other side. “Gifted” is capable of planting opponents on their back and hitting mat returns, but his top control is not the type where one takedown means he has won the round and can spend it on top. Any grappling exchange he plans to enter with Guida is time where the former Strikeforce champion will be thrilled, as “The Carpenter” can force scrambles and keep moving to somehow finagle himself into a favorable position. On the big stage, Garcia has not been able to use his Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt-level skills to secure more than one submission, and if he cannot snare Guida with a trap in the opening few minutes, the Chicago native will become the unstoppable 155-pound boulder rolling downhill. Garcia may perform well early, but Guida can take over and get his hand raised by pocketing two rounds on the scorecards.

Zak Cummings-Ed Herman Goes to Decision (-155)

This match seems to have come out of left field, with former welterweight Cummings returning after almost 28 months away moving up to 205 pounds. At 38, Cummings is not the elder statesman in this pairing, as Herman at 42 will be setting foot in the cage for the first time since August 2021. Perhaps surprisingly, these two men are both 3-2 in their last five, and they have recorded victories over decent names in their respective divisions. The last fighter to beat Cummings, Omari Akhmedov, respectably reached the finals of the 2022 Professional Fighters League season. Alonzo Menifield, who previously beat Herman in 2021, went on to annihilate the likes of Misha Cirkunov and famed one-and-done fighter Askar Mozharov. It might not be a thrilling encounter, but based on what each man brings to the table, it should be one that is left in the hands of the judges.

Both men present similarly, as lumbering power punchers with low volume and a penchant for catching opportunistic submissions. It is anyone’s guess if Cummings will be able to carry his firepower up 20 pounds to do some damage with it, as he has landed three knockdowns in his last four go-rounds. When looking strictly at fighter records, the 71% finish rate for Cummings and corresponding 81% for “Short Fuse” makes a play for this bout going to the scorecards a daunting prospect. However, the pace has unquestionably waned for these two veterans, who have both heard the final bell in four of their last six respective appearances. Respect for their experience and somewhat matching skill sets means that there could be plenty of feinting and faking, clinch fighting and attempted level changes across the match. This all adds up on the clock, and unless one of these two makes a silly mistake, it should reach the judges.