Prime Picks: UFC Saudi Arabia ‘Adesanya vs. Imavov’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday ships off to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with a billing that should bring the goods. Several pairings on the main card are not only enticing but close from a betting perspective—a welcome breath of fresh air compared to the -600 lines of recent events. Join the UFC Saudi Arabia edition of Prime Picks as we surf the sands in search of suitable selections.

Israel Adesanya (-175)

What might be most fascinating about this matchup is that underdog Nassourdine Imavov exceeds the former champion in most noteworthy metrics. While he stands an inch shorter and his reach measures five inches less, Imavov makes up for it with his constant, relentless offense. Remarkably, Imavov posts higher volume and accuracy, absorbs fewer blows and lands more takedowns more effectively while defending them better than Adesanya. When it comes to submissions, the Frenchman obviously exceeds the kickboxer, as well. Where these accolades fall short is the level of competition in which these two fighters have built these numbers. Adesanya has amassed them facing the best the middleweight division has to offer, while Imavov is just working his way into elite-level competition.

“The Last Stylebender” excels when fighting the pace he dictates, picking his shots and dismantling the man in front of him. On the other hand, Imavov tends to have his best success when he dictates the pace, picks his shots and breaks down his opponent. When it comes to bully-on-bully combat, Adesanya tends to only back off when faced with a destructive striker who can not only get his attention but hurt him. Crowding Adesanya and cutting him off with the fence at his back may be the best way Imavov can prevail other than grounding the Nigerian-born fighter and keeping him there for several rounds. Adesanya is not only the more decorated but also the more proven striker of the two, raising the old adage that numbers do not tell the full story. An Imavov who smartly fights his way into takedowns or lands enough of them to get the former champ gun-shy could work to his advantage greatly. However, with five rounds to work and both sharing the propensity to potshot from range, Adesanya should have the edge to make his current moneyline more than worth pursuing.

Michael Page (+155)

There’s no denying that Page, an elusive striker, is getting old fast, and it was on display against Ian Garry when he found that the younger man simply had the extra gear to outwork the Brit. Fortunately for Page, he’s not facing a man who should even remotely try to wrestle him. As a result, fans may be treated to a slow-paced inaccurate affair where Sharabutdin Magomedov charges like a bull again and again, only to hit air. Page is more than willing to sit back and wait for someone to feebly attack him, sitting back on lightning-quick counters and the occasional flashy blow to dazzle. When those do not come, his matches can be a bit of a drag.

Where Magomedov lacks for sheer technical skills he makes up for with creativity and the ability to flow with wherever the action goes. Deciding to twist once to crack Armen Petrosyan with a spinning backfist and then torque himself in the opposite direction to shut his lights out with a second will live on his highlight reel forever. The Russian would like nothing more than to make this a smack-down, drag-out affair, but he’s facing the wrong guy if he hopes for that type of melee. The onus will be on Magomedov to keep his guard up when entering into exchanges and either tie Page up or keep him contained from getting wily. Some seven years the elder, this could be when we really see “MVP” lose a step, as Magomedov will be pushing him from start to finish. However, with Page at decent plus money, based in part on his one-way working of Kevin Holland, he’s worth a stab.

DOUBLE PLAY (-101)

Sergei Pavlovich-Jairzinho Rozenstruik Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-210)

Terrance McKinney-Damir Hadzovic Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-285)

It may be surprising to some that a heavyweight knockout artist like Pavlovich sports a lower finish rate than McKinney, his lightweight colleague. After all, the Russian celebrates first-round knockouts over names like Curtis Blaydes, Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa, with all three stoppages combining for just under five minutes of cage time. Pavlovich does not like to waste time in the cage, with his three-rounder against Alexander Volkov serving as an anomaly on a slate that previously held nine straight fights ending in Round 1. He draws a willing dance partner in Rozenstruik, who can go long if he has to but would like nothing more than to deliver a knockout in under 30 seconds; he posts four of those. When these two bruisers throw hands, one of them will end up face down before too long.

Of the four men involved in this two-piece parlay, Hadzovic could be the reason it breaks. A stoppage rate of 71% is nothing to sneeze at, but half of his decision wins have come in the Octagon. Thankfully for him and bettors on this accumulator, he will stand across the cage from McKinney, a man allergic to boring fights. Whether he knocks out or gets knocked out, “T. Wrecks” will put himself in the best—or worst—possible situation to make sure a finish takes place. Most fold before him, and the Bosnian might do so, as well. However, the durability and cardio of Hadzovic may be just enough to skirt past the midpoint of the second stanza, where McKinney’s gas tank reads empty. It seems more likely than not that both of these fights will wrap up quickly, making this double play an avenue for success.

Mike Davis (-142)

Inactivity has been a serious thorn in the career of “Beast Boy,” who otherwise has been building a fairly solid resume. Averaging fewer than one fight a year has kneecapped any good will he has built, even with a solid submission of Natan Levy recently under his belt. His shellacking of Thomas Gifford—a win that has not aged well given Gifford’s fairly quiet departure from the sport one loss later—is still one of the worst one-sided beatings one could ever witness in the UFC. Thus far, the New Yorker has shown he can hit like a truck, keep that pace despite swinging for the bleachers perhaps a bit too frequently and handle himself on the mat against anyone not named Gilbert Burns. When colliding with a technical striker like Fares Ziam, Davis should have the upper hand.

At his best, France’s Ziam is a calm, defensively minded lightweight who will fight cautiously so as to not put himself in a precarious predicament. When those push the issue on him, he can succumb to the momentum, a la the McKinney fight, or he can find the home with one great shot to dispatch the likes of Matt Frevola. Otherwise, slow and steady wins the race for “Smile Killer,” who tends to do enough when exerting himself rather than always searching for the finish. He will find his back against the wall if he does not plant his feet and get Davis’ respect early. The Achilles heel for Davis is that he remains exceptionally hittable, so he might end up looking like he headbutted a belt sander if he attacks Ziam with no sense of self-preservation. Otherwise, Davis appears on paper to have more tools to emerge the victor.