Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 240 ‘Allen vs. Curtis 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship has one more stop in the Apex before catapulting across town to the T-Mobile Arena for the blockbuster UFC 300 show. It may not be what fans initially had in mind, but this card still presents numerous interesting matchups with plenty of ways to make a smart buck. Join the UFC Fight Night 240 edition of Prime Picks as we surf through another over on a main event and trot out three underdogs all with reasonable paths to victory.

Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis 2 Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-150)

This middleweight main event is a real gut check for these two participants. Curtis is jumping in on short notice against someone who beat a few years ago, while Allen has decided to run back his last loss. Both took a great deal of intestinal fortitude to accept this matchup, given the stakes it carries with it. A place in the Top 10 looms, and should Allen avenge his 2021 defeat, he may be one win away from a title shot. Curtis has more work to do, but beating Allen again will unquestionably skip the line a fair amount. With more at risk than the initial encounter, coupled with a knowledge of the other’s skillset, these fighters may take a while to get after it. If they approach this cautiously, the over will hit in no time.

Even as he has worked up the ladder at 185 pounds, Allen still embodies his “All In” nickname as he throws everything and the kitchen sink at his opponents. While his offense is just as sharp as ever, he remains quite hittable and susceptible to getting intercepted. Even a jiu-jitsu player like Andre Muniz succeeded on the feet until wearing out of steam. Curtis remains relatively accurate and fully capable of high-volume affairs, as evidenced by landing 140 significant strikes on Marc-Andre Barriault in January. If Curtis can land cleanly on Allen again, it could spell disaster for the rising talent.

Allen would likely prefer this to turn into a dirty affair and not one solely contested upright in kickboxing range. Even with Allen maintaining the height advantage, they are equal in the arms, and Curtis has shown an ability to reach longer, taller opponents. Curtis is well-schooled in the grappling arts, especially from a defensive perspective, and he can nullify a good position someone has on him. Allen could take his back, and as long as he has his wits about him, Curtis can survive and ride out the position. Grinding up against the fence is hardly a safe place for either fighter, but Allen, in particular, loves to throw elbows and rip strikes to the body or any target he can find. Curtis could very well be the type of foil that allows him to go up two against the Kill Cliff FC fighter, but if he does not get a stoppage via strikes within the first seven-ish minutes, it may go long.

Damon Jackson (+170)

The MMA community sits on pins and needles, waiting to discover whether “well-coiffed Jackson” will join the pantheon of mythical fighters a la Chuck Liddell with that look in his eye or a motivated B.J. Penn. In what should be one of the bigger stories of the week, Jackson’s physical transformation to now be sporting a full head of hair thanks to an establishment in Turkey should be celebrated. There is no shame in going with what nature gave you, but correcting a follicular deficiency is also perfectly fine. Not just intangibles make Jackson the sentimental upset pick, but they help.

Alexander Hernandez has not fared brilliantly throughout his Octagon career when facing someone who could take him down. His defense is nothing to write home about, and he has lost his last four outings when a foe landed at least one takedown. This is Jackson’s bread and butter, despite a low accuracy rate, because he can chain attempts together well. Switching from a double when pushing Hernandez against the fence to a single to run the pipe could trip up the Factory X product, as Jackson is crafty. This pick will hinge on whether one fighter can force grappling exchanges, similar to the main event. If that happens here, Jackson will likely have the upper hand.

Germaine de Randamie (+125)

A lot can change in four years. The Dutchwoman last competed in late 2020, hitting her first-ever submission against future champ Julianna Pena. Injury, pregnancy and other factors kept her out of action until now. Even at her zenith, de Randamie rarely fought twice a year, and inactivity brings a “what might have been” regarding a career that should have more than 14 pro bouts. In the Octagon, the only woman to best her is Amanda Nunes. Unless her skills and athleticism fell off a cliff—a genuine possibility at this age—“The Iron Lady” has what it takes to defeat Norma Dumont.

Dumont began her run in the UFC at 145 pounds in early 2020 and has fought nine times. De Randamie joined the league in 2013 and has nine UFC appearances. Despite her about to compete in the UFC for her 10th time, it may be a chore to point out her best asset. Dumont is strong and fairly defensively sound, but that might also be because she likes to play the bully and crowd opponents. If one thinks that de Randamie has diminished as a competitor, there are two options: Dumont’s moneyline is -150, or the fight going over 2.5 rounds at -325 is perfect for a parlay.

Dan Argueta (+140)

The dynamic for this final pick, also an underdog, is fairly simple. If Argueta can get Jean Matsumoto down without exerting too much effort and he can keep him there, he will win this fight. Matsumoto acquitted himself well in his audition appearance against Kasey Tanner but relied on many kicks to get the job done. A grappler like “Determined” will take advantage of those by catching them or pressuring hard enough to stifle them and back Matsumoto into a corner. The Brazilian does possess some quick-strike submission abilities, but Argueta has shown he is wise to those traps by taking everything that the aforementioned Jackson dished out on the ground.

Argueta does find himself in the unusual predicament of coming off not one but two no contests, with the former an early stoppage that he would have likely won seconds later and the latter a loss flipped because Miles Johns failed a drug test. Argueta may not be the best takedown artist in the promotion, but he can be determined to get the fight to his preferred location and work. The 15-minute sample on a major stage is not enough to draw conclusions when fighting UFC-caliber opponents, but Matsumoto had to work hard to get off the ground when Tanner wrested him there. Argueta may not put the unbeaten fighter in submission danger, but he can establish control and win rounds to notch the upset in a foreseeable manner.