Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 216 ‘Cannonier vs. Strickland’

The final Ultimate Fighting Championship event of the year is on deck this Saturday in Las Vegas, and as far as UFC Fight Nights go, this one stacks up fairly well. The matchmaking virtually promises that some competitors will prevail in an exceptionally violent manner, and other fights are neck-and-neck with how they could play out. The UFC Fight Night 216 edition of Prime Picks dives into one such coinflip matchup, takes a layup when it is offered and reviews two plus-money options that likely should be closer than the lines display.

Jared Cannonier (-110)

All of the skill, technical prowess, strategizing and analysis goes right out the window when a skilled competitor meets someone with bone-crushing power. As Sean Strickland learned quickly in July against current champion Alex Pereira, no amount of jabs, push kicks or strikes to the calf mattered when that one left hook caught him as cleanly as one could. The piston-like follow-up of a straight right down the pipe put him down once and for all, and it was lights out for the outspoken contender. Back on the horse about five and a half months later, he draws the unfortunate assignment of another brick-fisted bruiser who can shut his lights out in a hurry. While Strickland possesses a few skills that could nullify the knockout-minded Cannonier, it is up to him to utilize them to complete effect for the entire 25-minute span. At even money, Cannonier’s vaunted “fist go boop” approach is too good to pass up here.

Strickland could take the wind out of this play early if he decided to employ his underrated wrestling. This strategy in part allowed him to advance past Uriah Hall in July 2021, when he racked up control time in the later rounds and took the sting out of “The Ultimate Fighter” finalist’s blows. Cannonier’s takedown defense is not impregnable, and in fact, three of his seven opponents at middleweight put him on his back at least once. There is a significant caveat to that statistic: Every one of those three—David Branch, Jack Hermansson and Derek Brunson—succumbed to strikes in the second round. Not since Jan Blachowicz had his way with “The Killa Gorilla” in 2017 has someone controlled Cannonier extensively on the mat, and Strickland does not have the track record to expect this will be his preferred stratagem.

A major sticking point of Strickland’s tactics will hinge on his lead wheel, as he fights out of orthodox and relies on footwork and his plant leg to establish his jab. Cannonier may not even need to get on the inside if Strickland sticks his hand in his face repeatedly. Instead, sitting down on a few heavy leg kicks can get the job done in a hurry, as Strickland does not react well to receiving them and is not always cognizant of checking them. A couple shin-to-calf interactions will change the entire complexion of the match, a la Jan Blachowicz-Magomed Ankalaev, only Strickland may not be able to replicate the Dagestan native’s backup option by the time it gets to that point. Currently a pick’em on most books, there is no need to dig any deeper and consider whether Cannonier can put Strickland away or just beat him up for 25 minutes. Strickland may have his moments, but Cannonier’s should prove to be far more significant and damaging.

Arman Tsarukyan-Damir Ismagulov Goes to Decision (-225)

The all-Russian co-main event is one that appears to have more immediate title implications than the match following it. The victor will be right in the mix as a Top 10 fighter in the promotion, and it is a well-matched and extremely skillful affair. In the days leading up to the event, this specific line has shifted to and above -200 territory, while Tsarukyan has remained a betting favorite of about that amount, as well. Were it not for another, savorier underdog competing earlier at this event, a recommendation for Ismagulov at +165 territory might make the radar. If there is a place where Tsarukyan has struggled, it has been when colliding with someone who cannot only stay upright but put him on his back. Ismagulov could be just that person.

For this fight to go to a decision, it will mean that Tsarukyan—who employs lethal ground-and-pound when in an advantageous position—cannot get on top and rain down strikes. Even though “Ahalkalakets” has displayed improved striking power by dropping both Mateusz Gamrot and Christos Giagos in recent memory, it is when he moves to half guard or beyond that he gets especially dangerous. Ismagulov has only hit his back once inside the Octagon officially, but Guram Kutateladze could not hold him for more than a few seconds. Should this remain entirely upright, it can play out as a fairly exciting chess match of back-and-forth action. The stalls, where one man attempts to ply his trade and ground the other, can rip minutes off the clock, and neither shows lights-out pop in their punches to make this a quick night at the office. Even with this line above -200, history is firmly in favor of this hitting, as Ismagulov averages exactly 15 minutes of UFC cage time while Tsarukyan has gone to a decision in five of his seven promotional outings. Every now and then, a softball with high odds is worth pursuing. This, too, will not hinge on Ismagulov making weight, which is no guarantee.

Bobby Green (+132)

This third option was initially going to be Julian Marquez beating Deron Winn inside the distance at around +105, even with Marquez competing without chief corner James Krause. However, the match was scuttled on Thursday after Winn fell down some stairs and concussed himself. Instead, we turn to a fighter who seems to have finally—and hopefully—turned the corner from his cautious-to-a-fault style into one that will push the pace and live up to the technical potential many have called since all the way back to his time in Affliction. The recent blemish against future 155-pound king Islam Makhachev can be forgiven, or at least understood, and Green checked in a few errant scorecards away from beating Rafael Fiziev and Thiago Moises. Typically one who can hit without getting hit cleanly, Green’s ability to outbox the chin-first Drew Dober is one that makes him a play at plus money.

Even though each of his last five wins have come by knockout, Dober’s power may be somehow still underrated. The Nebraskan will need to get inside and try to force brawls wherever he can. His spectacular beard has held together against some serious punishment, but the downside of this is that it can lead him to lean on it when things get rough. Green’s power may not be of the stopping or even stunning variety, but he can sting with his shots and slip the counters extremely well. If the fight hits the mat, it may be because “King” would like to lord over his opponent in that fashion, but this could very well play out as a three-round rock’em sock’em scrap where both men get tagged but stay in it until the bitter end. In those kinds of contests, the high-volume Green, who does not flag when Minute 10 is reached, can keep up his solid work rate and take two of three rounds to get the nod.

David Dvorak (+205)

This early preliminary flyweight pairing—between the UFC’s ninth- and 12th-ranked 125-pound fighters—is buried beneath plenty of unranked action above them. This comes despite Dvorak’s opponent, Manel Kape, rarely getting into unexciting fights. “Starboy” celebrates a 94% finish rate and surges into this fight on a two-bout first-round knockout streak, so expectations are high that he can move into the Top 10 very soon. While his ceiling may be beneath Matheus Nicolau, that is no shame, as Nicolau is proving to be a stellar up-and-comer. Dvorak also lost to him some nine months ago. Notably, the Czech saw his 16-fight winning streak end in a razor-close loss to Nicolau. While Kape is a hard hitter, he should not be this heavily favored against the otherwise sturdy Dvorak, who has never been stopped by any way other than via doctor intervention.

As mentioned in the headliner, proper leg kicks can shut down the offense of power strikers. Removing the ability of the slugger to plant comfortably on that foot to push off and swing can work wonders, and Dvorak displayed this prowess when he worked Jordan Espinosa over in 2020. Inactivity has been a thorn in Dvorak’s side, averaging one appearance about every nine months or so, but Kape has not fought in over a year, even though his 2021 campaign was extremely active. The Angolan throws everything he has into his strikes, and Dvorak fights smart but can get touched. The next takedown “The Undertaker” lands in the Octagon will be his first, so fans could be treated early to a tense striking battle. If the fight accidentally hits the mat due to a collision, exchange or misstep, Dvorak is an exceptional opportunity when it comes to submissions. While Kape unquestionably possesses the one-shot advantage, Dvorak has the skills—and, perhaps more importantly, the patience—to spring the upset. If you disagree and feel that Kape will line his trophy room with one more skull, his victory by knockout is a decent +165.