Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 212 ‘Grasso vs. Araujo’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship delivers an appetizer inside the Apex a week before its blowout Abu Dhabi event, whetting fans’ appetites just enough with a few quality matchups and some others that promise immediate action. With nine of the 12 betting favorites seeing odds of -200 or above, parity is not nearly as prevalent as other events. Join in on the UFC Fight Night 212 Prime Picks breakdown, where the woman favored in the headliner has a good chance of cashing en route to a title shot, a pair of aging underdogs can surprise everyone watching and a Dallas-based destroyer that is even money to smash his opponent.

Order UFC 280 "Oliveira vs. Makhachev" exclusively on ESPN+

Advertisement

Alexa Grasso vs. Viviane Araujo Goes to Decision (-205)

Since moving to flyweight in August 2020, Grasso has looked solid while advancing up the totem pole with wins over respectable names in Ji Yeon Kim, Maycee Barber and Joanne Wood. The logical development finds the ex-strawweight against Araujo, a woman who has only fallen short in the UFC to title challengers Jessica Eye and Katlyn Chookagian. Her progress up the ranks has slowed thanks to injury and other oddities forcing her out of matches, with Grasso vs. Araujo falling through twice already. It is now a five-round affair, and one that will answer a lot of questions for either: namely, can they go the distance, and will they perform when the lights are shining the brightest? With finishes a premium at the upper echelon of their weight category, the best bet may instead be that they reach the final horn instead of predicting a victor.

With weight problems apparently behind her, Grasso appears to have put her well-rounded skillset together at the right time. While the final boss at 125 pounds of Valentina Shevchenko looms large with a win, Grasso will need to make certain her takedown defense is on point. If Araujo can ground her with ease, Shevchenko definitely will be able to as well. Letting her hands go, stinging Araujo in exchanges and making her pay for takedown entries, will be paramount to her success. Grasso should be the quicker woman, and she can use her timing and footwork to fluster Araujo while keeping things on the feet.

In order for Araujo to pull off the upset, she will have to force the issue almost immediately, and make Grasso fight off her back foot constantly. The Brazilian excels by striking first, and striking harder. The fleet of foot, in the vein of Chookagian and even Eye, can disrupt her approach as Araujo feebly plays chase. Neither flyweight have gone into the championship rounds, and Grasso did fade to a marginal degree against Barber, so this bears watching. As the two advanced in quality of opposition, their stopping power decreased, and Grasso will not be able to capitalize on the less-than-stellar grappling of a Wood-type to snatch up a submission. This line feels a bit more solid than an outright pick for Grasso, who resides at -230. In selecting a decision-based prop, it allows for both headliners to bank the majority of the rounds and still hit.

Cub Swanson (+175)

In a matter of weeks, Swanson will turn 39. Despite this, he will be cutting down for the first time in his storied career to bantamweight. This comes even though he obliterated Darren Elkins in the first round this past December, having found his knockout power again. Each of his five losses dating back to 2016 came against Top-10 opposition, and in his move to 135 pounds, he faces someone a couple wins away from a ranked spot in Jonathan Martinez. It is unclear exactly why Swanson is moving divisions while starting his new contract with the organization, and he is testing himself against a talented up-and-comer in the shark tank that is bantamweight. Unless he gets snake-charmed for three rounds or his weight cut saps what made him great, Swanson’s pressure and pace can overwhelm his opponent to record an upset.

One has to wonder how much time Martinez and his team studied the tape of Swanson against Jose Aldo at WEC 41 in 2009. While the fight only lasted eight seconds, Aldo’s flying knee is exactly the kind of weapon that Martinez prefers. “The Dragon” maintains nearly as many career knockouts by knees as he does from his fists, while his decent significant strike rate is heavily reinforced by his feet. Martinez can bank leg kicks while Swanson comes at him, chopping down the lead leg of “Killer Cub” and slowing him down in the process. The onus will be on Swanson to push his opponent and not get lulled into a straight kickboxing match where he gets picked away at for 15 slow minutes. With his aggression, and possibly holding a size advantage by moving down in weight, the underdog Swanson on paper has the firepower to get Martinez’s attention early and often.

Alonzo Menifield Wins Inside Distance (+100)

Menifield bounced back from a deflating loss to the gargantuan William Knight by obliterating the problematic Askar Mozharov in June. While beating a 15-13 fighter is not nearly as glamourous as taking out someone billed as 25-7, everyone was bamboozled by that now-retired fighter at the time. No matter what the record showed, Menifield displayed a new wrinkle in his game, landing as many takedowns (two) as his entire UFC and Dana White's Contender Series run put together. Coupled with a positively terrifying mauling ground-and-pound approach where he rearranged Mozharov’s face, the 34-year-old may be putting things together for a run at contention.

To move up the light heavyweight ladder, Menifield will battle the returning ex-middleweight Misha Cirkunov, who found no answers moving down in weight after being thoroughly outsized by Ryan Spann in March 2021. This may be a make-or-break appearance for the Latvian while on a three-bout skid, who will almost certainly try to ply his trap-setting submission game against Menifield. Cirkunov is an exceptional opportunity should the fight hit the ground, as the proprietor of only the second Peruvian necktie submission in UFC history. Unless he can snare Menifield either early when they are dry, or late when Menifield is fatigued, Menifield is a savvier striker and a much heavier hitter. Before the dust settles, Menifield should put Cirkunov out, and an inside the distance play does include possible opportunity for Menifield to snag his own sub a la his Von Flue choke of Fabio Cherant last year.

Mike Jackson (+500)

Stop us if you’ve heard this one: Jackson as a massive underdog against an untested knockout-heavy opponent is a bit out of line. “The Truth” received an unexpected lifeline against Dean Barry in April, and a veritable cornucopia of fouls ended with Jackson suffering a knockdown but getting his hand raised in the end. Just like Barry, Jackson will be taking on a 4-1 striker with four first-round knockouts on his ledger in Pete Rodriguez. While Jackson is not a world beater by any stretch, the inexperienced Rodriguez should not be a betting favorite of -700 against anyone on the roster, Jackson included. It is not the +700 that presented itself against Barry, but Jackson still maintains the skillset and physical tools – five inches taller with three inches on the reach, while preferring to fight long with jabs and distance-keeping kicks – to take two of three rounds to get the decision nod.

Rodriguez did not face the stiffest of opposition on the Ikon Fighting Federation circuit in a four-win run that spanned from October 2020 to June 2021. Recording four knockouts in a combined time of 4:37, those foes tallied win-loss records of 4-5. Against Jack Della Maddalena, Rodriguez’ charging strategy backfired when Maddalena met him with an accurate combination and a clean counter left hand to take him out. If “Dead Game” gets things done, it may very well be by knockout (-215), but he will have to catch Jackson early before he gets settled. Barring an early stoppage, the questions of Rodriguez’ cardio are significant enough where anything but a blazing-fast finish may result in him gassing and falling victim to Jackson’s effective kickboxing.