Prime Picks: UFC 313 ‘Pereira vs. Ankalaev’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship trots out its champion workhorse in Alex Pereira to again serve as the base pillar of an event, as he faces perhaps the last true challenger before the light heavyweight division is cleaned out. UFC 313 appears to be designed in a fashion that promises violence from the starting match to the final, with the promotion likely doling out some decent bonus checks at night’s end. With an exciting lineup like this comes some surprisingly well-matched battles from a betting standpoint, showing only a handful of favorites surpassing the -300 threshold. Join this latest edition of Prime Picks as we take two of the most obvious options on the slate while presenting a primo parlay that should print prodigious payments for plucky participants.

STRAIGHT-UP CASH

Alex Pereira (-115)

There appear to be some misconceptions on the skill set that Magomed Ankalaev brings to the table. Prognosticators who expect he will get his hand raised largely believe that he will lean on his wrestling to grind out the champion, at least long enough to open up his striking and gain the upper hand no matter where the fight plays out. What is exaggerated is the extent of Ankalaev’s grappling mastery, namely of the variety that completely nullifies opponents for rounds at a time. Beyond the overused expression that every fight starts on the feet, Pereira sports a significant reach advantage, and he is currently in the Top 5 in the UFC as a whole in strike accuracy. Additionally, “Poatan” likes to make someone pay when trying to engage him in grappling, both on the entrance and the inevitable exit. To win, Ankalaev will have to do what no one else has accomplished, and at this weight, it does not seem likely.

In nine of the Dagestan native’s 14 appearances, he has successfully completed a takedown. Only twice has he landed more than one: in a win against Nikita Krylov and in a draw with Jan Blachowicz. In the latter, Ankalaev amassed more control time than any other single match, but it was not enough to get past the power-punching Polish product. This version of Ankalaev is hardly a takedown machine, and Pereira is no takedown dummy. To get there, he will need to get his hands on the Brazilian early and often, because it’s his best chance to take the resounding strikes from “Poatan” out of the equation. Trying to thread that needle when the ability to grind out Pereira is far from a guarantee is a tough call for Ankalaev. The Russian likes to slug it out on the feet just as much as anyone else in the division, and this will be his undoing. Unless he slaps on a singlet and goes to town for five grueling rounds, this has the makings of a Pereira bludgeoning.

STRAIGHT-UP PASS

Armen Petrosyan (-135)

Even if one can get Petrosyan at a decent price as he gravitates up towards even money, his middleweight gunslinger’s duel with Brunno Ferreira is too risky to hone in on. There exists just as much of a possibility that Ferreira knocks Petrosyan into space as “Superman” outworks his flamethrowing opponent on his way to a decision—that alternate method of victory double chance on one book is listed at -150. For that, the power of Petrosyan appears to have dried up on the major stage, while Ferreira puts everything he has into each and every swing. Unless one wants to get creative or try to take a stab in one direction or the other, this pairing is too volatile to enjoy.

Should the Armenian get clipped during one of Ferreira’s likely many blitzes, it will be up to him to stay evasive, keep moving and not get backed to the wall. The same cannot be said if Ferreira is caught, as he has a safety valve to press in his brute force wrestling. While it has only succeeded in getting Phil Hawes down once, it was a proof of concept that he can force grappling if need be. If “The Hulk” decides to mix in faked attempts and level changes while otherwise trying to stand and bang, he could throw “Superman” off his game enough to be his kryptonite. With this being a possible coinflip, there are better lines to pursue at this event.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Justin Gaethje (+135)

After getting his block knocked off by Max Holloway in an all-timer, Gaethje declared he would get back to his roots. Unlike most fighters, who could be pointing to the first discipline they trained, Gaethje specifically noted that he meant his brawl-happy, throw-caution-to-the-wind style. “The Highlight” has said in the past that he tightened things up and was seemingly less willing to engage in a firefight where the chips fall where they may, but some past pairings make one think an old dog can’t learn too many new tricks. Still, Gaethje already holds a win over the favored Rafael Fiziev, and there’s no reason to believe that one loss to Holloway spells the end for him yet.

At its core, Gaethje the wild man outdueled the technician, the actual muay thai teacher at the vaunted Tiger Muay Thai camp, in a battle almost exclusively on the feet. The Arizona native remains the same ultra-active, exceptionally accurate hitter he was before April 13, 2024. This is a Gaethje that figured things out and punted Dustin Poirier in their rematch. Meanwhile, Fiziev has done nothing to earn this rematch besides blow out his knee against Mateusz Gamrot and get healthy at the right time. Luckily for Fiziev, this lightweight banger of a rematch has been shifted to three rounds to accommodate him coming in on short notice, but he faces a man in Gaethje who was training for a five-round engagement. One of the largest X-factors is that Gaethje did get knocked clean out in his last outing, but he took nearly a year to recover and make sure his head was on straight. At this line, the underdog is worth a mighty swing.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION

Mauricio Ruffy (-450)

Curtis Blaydes (-330)

Joshua Van-Rei Tsuruya Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-425)

Total Odds: -103

What a difference a year makes. One year ago, Ruffy had not yet made his promotional debut, while Bobby Green was primed to come back after a stoppage loss to Jalin Turner. Had the two been matched up at that time, the longtime vet may have served as the favorite. Instead, a few good performances in the Octagon, including a shellacking of Jamie Mullarkey, have installed Ruffy as a favorite exceeding -500 on some books. While that might be a little out of our range, when plopped into a three-piece like this, it seems fine. Green looked slower, more tentative and out of sorts when he ultimately shot for an ill-advised takedown against Paddy Pimblett and had his lights shut out by a guillotine choke. Ruffy may not maintain those submission chops, but he makes up for that in sheer firepower. “King” is elusive and always moving until he gets put down, but this matchup is not one built to his favor.

Even with Blaydes out of individual moneyline territory, ignore him at your own peril. There’s a very clear path to beating “Razor”—one with a strategy that consists of walking him down and punching him in the face until he falls down. He’s quite susceptible to quick blitzes, and his beard is not going to improve as he takes more damage and grows older. At 34, Blaydes is still a young man with upwards of a decade left in the heavyweight class, and it’s remarkable how his schedule went from taking on Tom Aspinall for an interim throne to facing an unranked UFC newcomer. Rizvan Kuniev holds a small bit of hype but no experience against an opponent above the level of a 44-year-old Anthony Hamilton or a steroid-assisted win against Renan Ferreira, which was wiped out when melted the cup at the post-fight drug test. With little fear of Kuniev plunking Blaydes early, this is the kind of fight that should have the Elevation Fight Team standout at -500 or higher. This should be the anchor to many good accumulators on this lineup.

It's up to the flyweights to start this parlay off the right way. Myanmar’s Van, empowered by his new authorization to carry his home nation’s flag during his walk to the cage, will be a stiff test and expected trap fight for an unbeaten Japanese upstart in Tsuruya. Van being the favorite at around -175 despite getting knocked out by Charles Johnson within the last 365 days speaks volumes to the confidence bettors still have in him. This will be a record-setting affair as the first UFC bout between two competitors born after 2000, and it will be one that likely takes part across all areas of the cage, horizontal and vertical. The takedown defense for “The Fearless” is stout, and by putting a high pace on Tsuruya, he might not let the younger man ever get comfortable in the cage. Van forcing Tsuruya to fight off his back foot will work to his best interest, especially if he backs him against the fence and intercepts inevitable takedown efforts with knees and uppercuts. As long as neither man procures a quick finish—something Van has not done in years, accounting for his whole UFC run and more—this over will cash and the rest should be gravy.