Prime Picks: UFC 311 ‘Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2’

Come hellfire or high water, the Ultimate Fighting Championship will touch down in Los Angeles this Saturday at the Intuit Dome. All best wishes from the Sherdog team go out to those affected by the wildfires blazing in the area. Without any decent transition, we switch gears to check out betting lines for UFC 311 and find that most of them are quite vast and at times surprising. It’s an all-underdog run for the first big pay-per-view of the year, as we pitch navigable ways of success for each main card competitor.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Arman Tsarukyan (+270)

Five-plus years ago, Tsarukyan made his promotional debut against Islam Makhachev. At the time, the latter was on a four-fight winning streak and on the early end of building his stock. There, “Ahalkalakets” kept a fighter who was a far better wrestler on paper honest for their three-round encounter, to the point where strikes were relatively similar while Makhachev offered enough to get his hand raised. Perhaps of significance, Tsarukyan landed a takedown in the opening frame, and he threw Makhachev off his game just enough to take him to his closest non-Adriano Martins match. Ultimately, Makhachev was able to ground his opponent and control him, but he could not get much of his vaunted offense going. While Makhachev has improved since that fight, the upgraded skills can arguably be attributed to the title challenger, who not only is great on the ground but spits fire when upright.

To be clear, the most reasonable play for this pairing is likely Makhachev Wins by Decision at a flat +100, due to his superior ability to win rounds being matched with Tsarukyan’s impressive durability. However, all Tsarukyan needs to do to score the upset is keep it as close as before and convince two judges he did enough in three rounds. He can do this with his hands or during grappling exchanges, but the former is where he might catch the champion off-guard. The kicks and knees might work to his disadvantage if he allows Makhachev to catch a leg and pursue a takedown entry, so he might rely more on his boxing than usual. No UFC lightweight beltholder has ever successfully defended his strap four times in a row, and Makhachev delivered defense No. 3 against Dustin Poirier. He would be the first to achieve this feat, although Tsarukyan is more than ready to play spoiler and a worthy play at these odds.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Merab Dvalishvili (+235)

The disrespect is massive for the bantamweight kingpin, who claimed the throne uncontroversially by doing exactly what he did on the way up. Bettors think that undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov is the heir apparent, given the lopsided line in his favor. There is good reason for that: Dvalishvili has made his bread largely from frenetic chain wrestling, while Nurmagomedov has yet to surrender a single takedown in his six-fight UFC venture. No one has come close. The ultra-intense style of Dvalishvili had been considered by some as an approach that would eventually hit a wall, and prognosticators think this is that wall. Our pick is due to Dvalishvili’s penchant for keeping things close enough to influence scorers and a gas tank to keep that in-your-face madness for 25 hard minutes.

Up until Nurmagomedov faced Cory Sandhagen, few had put hands on the Russian. Bekzat Almakhan had exactly one moment of success at the beginning of their 15-minute affair, dropping Nurmagomedov but not finishing him, and that led to him landing a total of three significant strikes all told. The volume of Dvalishvili is going to be sky-high, to the point that he may throw three times as often as he lands, but those numbers will add up fast. Even if he does not demonstrate fight-changing power, if you hit someone enough times, they will react accordingly. Pushing the pace is different than having to backpedal for rounds at a time, so Dvalishvili—obvious staph infection and large gash on his leg notwithstanding—can give Nurmagomedov fits, chaining one takedown into six in order to put the Russian on his back. The first should come harder than the rest, and Dvalishvili could play spoiler in his inaugural title defense.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Jiri Prochazka (+117)

Thus far in the promotion, Prochazka has lost to one person: Alex Pereira. It happened twice, with the second quicker and more lopsided than the first. This may lead to the Czech ex-champ coming in at plus money against fellow former light heavyweight beltholder Jamahal Hill. “Sweet Dreams” also had his lights punched out by Pereira, so both men can commiserate in their post-fight drink together. The hyperactive attack from Prochazka worked against him against a stone wall of a striker in Pereira, but a movable object in Hill is quite different. This fight likely will end before the final bell—a reasonable option in a parlay at +275—as these two simply hit too hard, too often. Unless his chin was fully cracked by “Poatan,” the 32-year-old should still be able to put his hands on Hill until the matchup’s inevitable conclusion.

A big tipping point of this 205-pound contest could come in Hill’s selection of strikes. Landing roughly three-quarters of his punches and kicks up high, an altered shot selection to chew up Prochazka’s legs would pay dividends almost immediately. Even though Prochazka managed to procure the spectacular knockout, Aleksandar Rakic had him in a bad way with low kicks before the stoppage. Pereira succeeded on both occasions at least in part by taking away Prochazka’s legs, and a savvy Hill could replicate that success if he did his homework. It will be up to Hill to be the out-fighter, keeping his distance and chipping away while not letting “BJP” get in his groove and throw bombs. If Hill does not fight smart and to his best advantages, instead getting backed up against the fence while under attack, the upset will come violently.

’DOG WILL HUNT

Beneil Dariush (+135)

Dariush and opponent Renato “Money” Moicano share a whole lot in common. The two were born within weeks of one another, share a similar number of pro fights and joined the promotion in 2014. Despite this, Moicano is on his way up while the best days of the Iranian-born competitor seem behind him. This might be a bit of an unfair conclusion to draw after Dariush suffered first-round knockouts to two of the top men in his division: Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira. A well-rounded fighter like Dariush can threaten on the feet, and although he will not likely find a situation where he will be submitting Moicano, he can at least keep himself out of danger until they restart standing.

There is a question on whether Dariush has taken too much damage over the years as a Top 10 lightweight whether or not it is finally catching up with him. Until his last two outings, Moicano did not present as a knockout threat and instead served as a rear-naked choke artist. Beating up Jalin Turner and Benoit St. Denis changed the opinion of the Brazilian to a degree, but his aggressiveness can get the better of him. Dariush could easily sit back, wait to find his shot and connect cleanly when “Money” goes wide. It might not be as sizeable of a difference from the favorite to underdog as the first two pairings we mentioned, but this seems like a coinflip rather than one where the favored competitor was -200 earlier in the week.