Opinion: Why Tatiana Suarez is Primed to Dethrone Weili Zhang at UFC 312

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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Weili Zhang is arguably the most dangerous female fighter on the planet, but the reigning Ultimate Fighting Championship strawweight’s belt could be in real trouble come Saturday. Zhang (25-3) hasn’t tasted defeat since 2021, but if there’s anybody that could remind the two-time champ of the feeling, its undefeated challenger Tatiana Suarez.

Suarez (10-0) could add championship gold alongside her perfect record when she duels Zhang for the belt in the UFC 312 co-main event from Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. Suarez, “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 23 champion, has torn through everyone in front of her since signing with the organization in 2016, but has been plagued by physical hurdles for years.

A former Pan American Games gold medalist, Suarez’s first burst on the scene as a world class wrestler, but her Olympic aspirations were cut short by a crushing neck injury and a bout with thyroid cancer. It wouldn’t be the first time her health issues would hold her back. A devastating knee injury sidelined her for nearly four years and she hasn’t been able to get through a camp healthy since her last fight in August of 2023.

But when Suarez is healthy, she’s a force of nature. It was clear from the very first episode of her run on “The Ultimate Fighter” that she’d be a future star. Selected by Claudia Gadelha as the No. 1 overall pick, Suarez cruised to the finale off back-to-back submissions, before claiming the series title with a first round brabo choke on Amanda Cooper.

It didn’t take long for Suarez to make a name for herself on the roster. With dominant wins over Alexa Grasso, Carla Esparza and Nina Nunes, there was little reason to believe that she wouldn’t claim the belt. Unfortunately, injuries have stolen so much of her career and forced fans to only wonder what would have potentially been of the Covina, California, native's prime.

Suarez’s bouts with injury and trials have made her an extremely resilient person. She’s so dominant when she’s in the cage, but the constant setbacks have kept her stuck in first gear. While she was stuck on the sidelines for years, Zhang became the first Chinese MMA champion and took over the sport.

But the mere fact that Suarez’s first fight in 18 months is a title shot should show just how special of a fighter that she is. Zhang has won her last four, but is actually the slight betting underdog (+105, -125). This level of respect is rare, indeed.

When it comes to grappling this fight is a mismatch. Suarez is big and strong for the weight class and if she gets into a clinch with Weili she should be able to overpower her physically. Suarez’s black belt in jiu jitsu makes her a threat at all times. She’s relentless and a menace when it comes to finding chokes.

While Suarez should feel comfortable on the mat, the advantage in striking belongs to the champ. Zhang is the faster, more explosive and complete striker, who’s muay thai background and heavy hands have led her to 11 career knockouts. Zhang can generate power with one punch or simply outbox you and control you for the five-minute round. Suarez’s inactivity is also a striking nightmare because she could find it difficult to find her timing.

Make no mistake this fight is as 50/50 as it gets. Suarez and Zhang both have a path to victory, but Suarez’s journey to the belt is opening up at the perfect time. After years of trials and tribulation, she’s finally received her opportunity to capitalize on her undeniable ability and I doubt she’ll squander the opportunity. When she’s feeling good, Suarez is one of the best fighters on the planet and she’ll feel the best she’s ever felt when she claims the belt on Saturday.