Opinion: Do or Die for Mackenzie Dern

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Jan. 11 kicks off its 2025 schedule with a UFC Fight Night 249 card headlined by a rematch between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. It’s not getting much buzz, which is completely understandable. Aside from it being a barely passable headliner, it’s a rematch no one asked for.

Their first contest in 2019 wasn’t a competitive affair. Despite being a heavy favorite in her return to combat sports from pregnancy, Dern had no response for Ribas’ jab and could not get past it in order to secure takedowns. In fact, it was Ribas who completed a few takedowns and caught the defensively inept Dern off-guard. It was Dern’s first MMA loss and shined the spotlight on Ribas for the first time.

Neither combatant has managed to break through as a true contender since. That isn’t to say success has eluded them. Both have headlined UFC Fight Night cards, been featured on pay-per-view main cards on multiple occasions and scored wins over Virna Jandiroba—someone many see as the top contender in waiting at 115 pounds. However, whenever Dern or Ribas have been presented with opportunities to establish themselves near the top of the women’s strawweight division, they have come up short. Instead, they appear destined to be gatekeepers for those looking to move into title contention.

Ribas has been given a bit of a pass in the sense that she never had the expectations that were placed upon Dern. In fact, many would say Ribas has likely exceeded expectations. Given that Dern entered the organization anointed as a future champion, anything less than claiming the title would be seen as a disappointment. Perhaps she could get away with at least fighting for a championship someday, but that hasn’t happened yet. Were the expectations that far off? Were we all being unrealistic?

In terms of physical skills, Dern has proven she has what it takes to be a champion. She has proven to have ungodly toughness, and because of her power, she can be dangerous on the feet despite her lack of technique. Couple that with what may be the most dangerous submission game in MMA and everything is there for Dern to reign over the strawweight division—everything but the mental acuity.

It’s not that Dern is unable to learn. After struggling mightily with weight cutting early in her career, Dern has been a model of discipline over her last 12 contests. However, I fear her prominent Brazilian jiu-jitsu background has her focusing on all the wrong things for her MMA career. What type of impression is Dern giving about her focus by partaking in grappling contests with Ffion Davies when the general idea is that her career is stalled? One would think Dern would barely be focusing on her grappling, if giving it any attention at all. The daughter of Megaton Dias, Dern has been trained in BJJ and judo basically since she could walk. You’d be hard pressed to find someone any more schooled in those disciplines. However, it’s clear she never worked on wrestling or striking in her youth, as both skills still come across as somewhat foreign to her. This March will mark seven years since Dern made her UFC debut, and she has made only minimal progress with her striking and wrestling.

Learning something new can take time, particularly as adults when we’ve developed patterns and routines. Still, we’re coming up on seven years in the UFC. If it hasn’t taken by now, it’s reasonable to believe it never will. Dern’s striking too often remains rudimentary. It would be a compliment to say that about her takedowns, as she charges her opponents and relies on her raw athleticism and strength to drag them to the mat. No technique. No strategy to lure them into her grasp. Just pure natural talent.

There have also been severe setbacks and questions about what Dern’s camps have been like. Personal issues for herself and her coach, Jason Parillo, have something to do with that. Dern went through a messy divorce that was finalized in 2023. There are questions as to how much her personal life has improved after her current husband, Antonio Trocoli, was arrested for misdemeanor battery in October for an incident involving Dern’s ex. Parillo dealt with the closure of his training facility in September 2023. That complicated issues enough that Dern largely spent her camp going into UFC 295 without him, resulting in one of the most one-sided beatdowns of the year when Jessica Andrade knocked her to the mat four times.

With that said, Dern has continued to work with Parillo and managed to win what was mostly a striking battle with Lupita Godinez in August. Godinez has improved her own boxing but may also be the smallest fighter on the roster, which limits her effectiveness in all phases. It also required her to close the distance with Dern. Stylistically, it was always a favorable matchup for the American. What this contest with Ribas does is afford Dern a shot at retribution, an opportunity to prove herself and perhaps even a last chance to prove she’s capable of fulfilling her vast potential.

Unless Dern comes out and shows us a version of herself that we didn’t know existed, it means she’s going to have to do more than just win. She’s going to have to show improved footwork and head movement, prove she’s capable of maintaining a strategy with her striking, display an ability to disguise her entries and utilize improved timing. Is that a lot? Sure, but she’s had a lot of time and several legitimate excuses over the last several years. One may question if Dern’s excuses could or should have been overcome in comparison to challenges her opponents faced in that time, but I’ll leave that to interpretation. The bottom line? The spotlight is on Dern, and it’s time to deliver. If she fails to do so, family and friends may be the only people left on the bandwagon.