Matches to Make After UFC on ESPN 40

Unusual for an Ultimate Fighting Championship card featuring finals for “The Ultimate Fighter,” UFC on ESPN 40 was one of the company’s best free events of the year. It featured a strong co-main and main event, both with considerable repercussions for their respective division’s rankings. That’s exceedingly rare these days.

Jamahal Hill faced a major test in former title challenger Thiago Santos, who nearly upset Jon Jones for the light heavyweight championship in 2019 but suffered a catastrophic knee injury in the process. Santos hasn’t been the same since and entered the cage on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas as a 38-year-old who had lost three of his previous four post-Jones bouts. Of course, those losses were to Glover Teixeira, Aleksandar Rakic and Magomed Ankalaev, the last two via competitive decision. He clearly has something left. Hill, meanwhile, is a fast, vicious and sleek striker who had looked superb in first-round knockouts against Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker since his technical knockout loss to Paul Craig in 2021. He moved one step closer to contention at 205 pounds with a fourth-round finish of Santos—something Ankalaev could not manage to do.

Elsewhere, we saw a crowd-pleasing, toe-to-toe battle between devastating welterweight strikers in Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal, ending in a thunderous knockout for the latter. There were previously high hopes for Luque and Neal to become top contenders, but both sputtered along the way. Luque was dominated in the striking department by Stephen Thompson and then lost in the grappling to Belal Muhammed, while Neal was also handled by Thompson and then lost in the grappling to Neil Magny. The welterweight division can be cruel and unforgiving, exposing any weakness that even excellent competitors possess. With Neal becoming the first man to knock out the iron-chinned Luque, some intriguing options open up for him.

In the aftermath of UFC on ESPN 40, here are five matches that ought to be made:

Jamahal Hill vs. Aleksandar Rakic: The 30-year-old Rakic is still a dynamic, exciting contender in the light heavyweight division, even if he has had a few stumbles along the way, most recently a leg injury against ex-champion Jan Blachowicz in May. However, none of the setbacks were major or hurt his credibility as an elite competitor. A perfect return fight for him would be against a similarly dynamic, exciting striker in Hill. Not only would it be a treat for the fans, but the winner would become a top contender in the division. Given that Rakic is 30 and Hill is 31, there is also plenty of opportunity for the loser to rebuild and make another run towards the title.

Thiago Santos vs. Paul Craig: A unique fighter, Craig has been smashed effortlessly inside one round by Tyson Pedro, Khalil Rountree and Alonzo Menifield, yet also holds submission wins over Nikita Krylov and the aforementioned Ankalaev. If nothing else, he always makes for an entertaining battle in which one can never count him out. If Santos is to mount any type of serious challenge for the 205-pound title again, showing he can defeat a dangerous grappler like Craig, currently ranked No. 9 in the division, would be a good start. It would also provide a fun, unpredictable matchup for the fans.

Related » UFC on ESPN 40 Round-by-Round Scoring

Geoff Neal vs. Gilbert Burns: The 36-year-old Burns already had his crack at the title and even hurt Kamaru Usman in the first round of their championship showdown prior to being finished. He is clearly on the decline but remains a Top 10 fighter, and he had a close fight against rising star Khamzat Chimaev in his last outing. A fight with Neal would be an exciting, fan-pleasing clash been two powerful strikers, and it would pit Burns’ world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills against the Texas native’s excellent takedown defense. The loser would still be in the Top 10 at welterweights, while the winner would be catapulted back into the mix of the division’s contenders, likely requiring another few wins to challenge for the throne.

Vicente Luque vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio: Neither of these guys will become champion, and they are clearly on the decline due to a combination of years and punishment, so why not pit them against one another in another crowd-pleasing stand-up war? It’s unfortunate in Ponzinibbio’s case. When he delivered one of the most savage beatings in MMA history to Neil Magny in 2018, many, myself included, thought the then 32-year-old Argentinian—Ponzinibbio was on a seven-fight winning streak at the time—was well on his way to challenging for the welterweight crown. Alas, Ponzinibbio suffered through a number of medical issues, including a life-threatening staph infection, and when he returned over two years later, he wasn’t the same fighter. He suffered a knockout to Jingliang Li, then battled back to beat the undefeated Miguel Baeza in my favorite fight of 2021. Ponzinibbio has gone on to lose split decisions to Michel Pereira. A showdown with Luque would be strong contender for “Fight of the Night,” no matter what card it’s on.

Sergey Spivak vs. Chris Daukaus: Spivak delivered an impressive thrashing of Augusto Sakai, who is ranked 14th in the heavyweight division and main evented a UFC card as recently as September 2020 against Alistair Overeem. The Moldovan is now 6-3 in the organization, with a resume that includes an equally dominant second-round stoppage of Tai Tuivasa that has aged nicely and a forgivable loss to Tom Aspinall. He’s also just 27 years of age, a rarity in the division. Spivak is an excellent grappler, but his striking remains serviceable but quite basic. I would love to see him against a higher-ranked contender with good standup who might be an inferior grappler but could perhaps neutralize him in that area. It will be a strong indication of whether Spivak is capable of becoming a serious contender or just a solid mid-card talent. Daukaus fits both bills—he is ranked 10th after being stopped by Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes—as he can stand effectively against less powerful strikers than Lewis and neutralize less potent grapplers than Blaydes. It will be a chance for him to bounce back and prove that he can defeat a good heavyweight who isn’t 40-plus years old.