Preview: UFC 196 ‘McGregor vs. Diaz’

Welterweights

Brandon Thatch (11-3) vs Siyar Bahadurzada (21-6-1): The two words that best sum up Bahadurzada’s game are “powerful” and “shallow.” He is a devastating puncher, a powerful kicker and a strong sprawler. Opponents who throw single shots or shoot from long range are countered or stuffed with relative ease. Stretch out those interactions out, however -- put Bahadurzada in a combination punching exchange or a prolonged clinch battle -- and the Afghani slugger starts to look a little sloppy. Based on his tilt with former lightweight champ Benson Henderson, Thatch may suffer from the same flaw. Given the chance to impose his will, especially on the feet, Thatch is extremely dangerous. However, with a crafty veteran in front of him, he starts to run out of ideas and ends up in trouble. Of course, Bahadurzada is more likely stuck in his ways at this point, with 14 years of pro experience to Thatch’s seven and a half. In this case, Thatch’s reach and height are his biggest advantages. Expect him to land kicks and straight punches at range and outwork Bahadurzada with knees in the clinch. Thatch wins a unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Erick Silva (18-6) vs Nordine Taleb (11-3): Like most Silva fights, this one can only go two ways. Either Silva uses his explosive, single-shot striking, excellent counter wrestling and aggressive jiu-jitsu to get an early finish or his opponent outlasts him and he suffers a decision loss or late stoppage. Silva’s skills cannot be denied, but doubts about the Brazilian star’s stamina and strategic fundamentals are absolutely valid. Taleb has nowhere near Silva’s level of explosive athleticism, but he is a proven three-round fighter and has demonstrated a very cool head in all of his recent performances. Taleb may not be able to match Silva for fast-twitch power, but he is taller and physically strong enough to hold his own in the clinch. Silva getting another early win is not out of the question, but I see Taleb weathering the early storm, putting his jab on Silva and wearing him down over the course of the latter two rounds. Taleb by split decision is the pick.

Middleweights

Vitor Miranda (11-4) vs Marcelo Guimaraes (9-1): Here we have a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup with some fascinatingly blurred lines. Guimaraes is a jiu-jitsu black belt, but his approach to MMA is that of a very well-rounded fighter. Guimaraes is comfortable jabbing with his opponent at range and has a knack for mixing his strikes belied by his grappling background. Miranda is a pro kickboxer, but in his recent victory over Clint Hester, he demonstrated some fine counter-grappling and did serious damage from half guard. Due to his affiliation with Team Nogueira, that should not be altogether surprising. Miranda tends to succeed most against fighters who mix up things, while straightforward, single-minded specialists like Fabio Maldonado and Antonio Carlos Jr. have managed to defeat him. He also relies a little too much on sudden moments of Hail Mary offense, and Guimaraes is likely too durable for that to work. The pick is Guimaraes by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Darren Elkins (19-5) vs Chas Skelly (15-1): Poised to break into the top 10 at featherweight, blue-chip prospect Skelly will look for a win over Elkins, a certified gatekeeper. Elkins’ style is neither pretty nor smooth, but he is absolutely effective. His unanimous decision victory over Robert Whiteford saw him repeatedly take down an experienced judoka. More importantly, he did so while landing strikes and avoiding undue punishment on the feet, hiding his takedown attempts behind his punches and moving his head well on the way in. Skelly probably sees in Elkins a kindred spirit, as his own style is of the same ugly-but-effective variety. Skelly’s stock may have dropped for some when he was floored by Edimilson Souza in his last bout, but perhaps the lesson should be more positive. Consider: Skelly absorbed clean punches from one of the hardest hitters in the division -- 88 percent of Souza’s wins have come by knockout -- and still went on to submit his opponent. Skelly is big, durable and tenacious. He is also surprisingly effective as an offensive fighter despite the cobbled-together appearance of his game, especially in the clinch. Elkins only wins when he pushes the wrestling game, and I doubt the Indiana veteran wants to wind up on the ground with Skelly. The pick is Skelly by second-round submission.

Lightweights

Diego Sanchez (25-11) vs Jim Miller (25-7): Miller has been showing signs of decline for some time, but it has been five years since Sanchez put on anything resembling an all-round good performance. His tenacity cannot be faulted, of course. Sanchez is extremely aggressive and willing to soak up an absurd amount of damage in order to put hands on his opponent. His ability to withstand that punishment is lessened, however, and Miller’s southpaw muay Thai has long been an underrated strength. Miller should be able to clip Sanchez with counters on the way into the pocket, slice him up with elbows in the clinch and bring him to the ground, where only elite grapplers stand a chance with him. The pick is Miller by submission in the second round.

Lightweights

Justin Salas (12-6) vs Jason Saggo (10-2): Salas is 3-3 in the UFC and has competed in the organization since 2012, though I suspect a great many fans will struggle to recall his face. That is because Salas is an all-rounder. Of his 12 pro wins, four resulted in knockouts or technical knockouts, three in submissions and the remaining five in decisions. His six losses are also split neatly down the middle: three by KO or TKO and three by submission. Salas can strike, he can wrestle and he can grapple, but nothing stands out in particular. That gives Saggo an advantage. Saggo is a fairly well-rounded fighter himself, having actually competed in muay Thai, but his strength is the ground game and his fighting style suggests that he knows it. Saggo grapples with a single-minded focus that even Salas, with a Division I wrestling background, will struggle to deal with. In particular, Saggo excels at finding takedowns in the clinch and against the fence, where other fighters have consistently stalled Salas out. Saggo wins via second-round submission.

Featherweights

Julian Erosa (15-2) vs Teruto Ishihara (7-2-2): Ishihara came into the “Road to UFC Japan” tournament as a natural athlete with crushing power and an otherwise limited game. Throughout his back-and-forth scrap with Mizuto Hirota, a well-rounded veteran with a decorated record, he showed drastic improvement in both technique and tactics. Though his explosive fighting style left him drained in the third round, “Yashabo” displayed crisp counterpunching and a powerful kicking game. Like Ishihara, Erosa tends to throw in simple ones and twos, but he is less durable and less powerful. His edge in this fight will be his wrestling. Erosa is strong in the clinch and dangerous with both elbows and knees. If he can make it out of the first round, he stands a good chance of wearing down Ishihara, but I think the Japanese fighter catches him clean on the way in and ends his night early. Ishihara takes it by first-round KO.

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