Preview: UFC on ESPN 17 ‘Santos vs. Teixeira’

Women’s Strawweights Xiaonan Yan (12-1) vs. Claudia Gadelha (18-4)

ODDS: Yan (-120), Gadelha (+100)

Where exactly is Gadelha nowadays? For years, “Claudinha” was the clear-cut second-best strawweight under the UFC umbrella, as she was able to handily beat every opponent besides then-champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk. She did so on the back of a relatively simple approach. Owing to her considerable muscularity, Gadelha could physically overwhelm her opponents for at least two rounds, banking enough on the scorecards to make up for her lack of cardio come the third. That saw her gas badly by the end of a five-round title fight against Jedrzejczyk, but it was not until a 2017 loss to Jessica Andrade that Gadelha seemed to feel the need to tweak her approach. Andrade was the rare strawweight who could physically overpower her, and that resulted in a beating that essentially sent Gadelha into the wilderness for the next three years, as the former title challenger looked to completely revamp her game. Gadelha has since changed camps a few times while attempting to lean out and become a busier striker, but the results historically have not been all that great. The faster pace of her fights seemed to have the same net effect of draining her cardio, only without all the advantages of her old approach. However, it all seemed to finally click against Angela Hill. While the split decision win for Gadelha was controversial, it was the first sign that she could keep up her new approach for 15 minutes and maintain her pace and power throughout. Of course, this all begs the question of whether or not she is actually a better fighter in the aggregate after all these changes, but Gadelha at least finally looks poised to see exactly how far she can take this new version of herself.

Gadelha gets a solid next test in China’s Yan, who is looking to answer some questions herself. Yan did not face a particularly strong slate of competition prior to the UFC, but she has acquitted herself well inside the Octagon thanks to a high-volume striking approach. However, it was not until her last fight—a February beating of Karolina Kowalkiewicz—that Yan showed the type of form to suggest that she could become a contender. Yan showed much more of an ability to sit down and throw power behind her punches, and that paid immediate dividends, as she apparently broke Kowalkiewicz’s eye socket early in what became a particularly brutal decision victory. It was a breakout victory for Yan, but some questions still remain about how much of that performance can carry over. Kowalkiewicz is in the middle of a particularly difficult slide, so Yan may have just drawn the best stylistic matchup to show the strengths of her game. Gadelha should be a tougher test, so we will find out soon enough whether China has another strawweight about whom contenders should be worried.

This might be the most interesting fight on the card in terms of providing a benchmark for both fighters. First, there is the matter of whose improvements in the striking department carry over from their last fight. Was Yan’s newfound power and precision a function of facing Kowalkiewicz? Can Gadelha keep up with her pace either way? The wrestling exchanges should provide some sense of exactly where Yan is at on the physical scale. She has been able to bully the worse athletes that she has faced, but even this leaner version of Gadelha is a much stronger opponent than any of Yan’s previous competition. Yan figures to win this for as long as it remains on the feet. Even if she reverts back to her wilder form, her willingness to throw volume should cause Gadelha some issues in terms of pace. Even so, Gadelha showed a renewed willingness to go for takedowns against Hill, and that is probably where the fight can be won. Yan has shown some slickness on the mat, but this feels like a big ask in terms of physical strength. Plus, Gadelha’s last performance feels much more like something that can be built on here, if only because Yan and Hill are at relatively the same level in terms of competition. Remember, Gadelha is a huge step up from the 2020 iteration of Kowalkiewicz. This is a difficult one to parse, but the pick is Gadelha via decision.

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