Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Chiesa vs. Lee’

Welterweights

Tim Means (26-8-1) vs Alex Garcia (14-3)

THE MATCHUP: Throughout his UFC career, Garcia has shown time and again that he has all the makings of a contender. He is an excellent athlete with knockout power and a long background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. At times, those skills and attributes have been enough, as in his fights with Ben Wall, Mike Swick and Mike Pyle. Against a certain level of competition, however, Garcia’s problems begin to show. Garcia is one of those fighters for whom “technical” means cautious and “aggressive” means all-out war. With the cerebral Firas Zahabi in his corner, Garcia often seems over-focused on his Ps and Qs, which is perhaps why, when an exchange occurs, he reverts to wild, reckless swinging. Add in the fact that Garcia slows down noticeably after about three minutes and you have the picture of a dangerous but very flawed fighter.

If Garcia approaches this fight with the intention of dragging Means to the ground, he may very well succeed. Though “The Dirty Bird” is no stranger to the ground game, as attested by the four submission wins dotted throughout his record, it does not always suit him. Means is tall but thin and seems to lack strength -- or maybe just leverage -- in tie-ups with more stoutly built fighters. Means has never been knocked out, but of his eight losses, four came via submission. Garcia is a solid submission wrestler, scoring 62 percent of the nearly eight takedowns he shoots per fight and having earned five victories by submission.

However, if Garcia chooses to strike with Means or if he thoroughly exhausts himself in the first round, then it will be a different story. Means is an excellent kickboxer. Strike for strike, he is one of the very best in the division. Fighting out of a southpaw stance, he keeps a jab zipping in and out of his opponent’s face, like a stinging fly, using this distraction to land power punches that snap and pierce. When he is not physically outmatched, he is dangerous in the Thai clinch, as well, and will even use this position to set up sneaky chokes while standing. Means lands twice as many strikes per minute as Garcia, and he knows how to manage distance with his lanky 6-foot-2 frame. That alone is bad news for Garcia, as all three of the men who beat him were built much the same: Seth Baczynski at 6-foot-3, Neil Magny at 6-foot-3 and Sean Strickland at 6-foot-1.

THE ODDS: Means (-231), Garcia (+183)

THE PICK: Expect Garcia to mix power strikes with takedown attempts early. It would not be a surprise if some of these blows were to land and some of these shots were to succeed. Garcia has rarely looked great after the first round, however. He appeared to be slowing down even a few seconds before he knocked out Pyle -- a feat which only took four minutes. Means is just the opposite. Given a wild, swinging opponent, he tucks his chin and stabs away from range, occasionally stepping in to throw a combination or land a slashing elbow, maintaining that pace indefinitely. Garcia is likely to give him such a fight eventually, as he seems doomed to brawl in every bout. The pick is Means by third-round TKO.

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