Preview: UFC 274 ‘Oliveira vs. Gaethje’

Lightweights

NR | Donald Cerrone (36-16, 23-13 UFC) vs. NR | Joe Lauzon (28-15, 15-12 UFC)

ODDS: Cerrone (-165), Lauzon (+145)

Two reliable warhorses of the UFC’s lightweight division go at it in a fight that somehow has not happened yet, and this pairing figures to be entertaining enough to distract from each man’s late-career woes. It is a bit of a surprise to see Lauzon return to the UFC for the first time since 2019. Beyond the long layoff, Lauzon’s last fight was about the best note possible to go out on. Lauzon had a stunning UFC debut with an upset win over Jens Pulver in 2006, then made a name for himself as one of the most reliably exciting fighters on the roster. His combination of fast starts, submission acumen and tendency to fade and get battered down the stretch turned a lot of his fights into back-and-forth wars, making him must-see entertainment while also keeping him short of title contention. Lauzon’s cardio issues got worse in the later stretches of his career, but he was still a viable fighter up through a narrow 2017 loss to Steven Ray, after which “J-Lau” seemed absolutely shot. Clay Guida knocked him out in just 67 seconds, and Lauzon gassed quickly and badly against Chris Gruetzemacher, retiring in between the second and third rounds. A year and a half after the Gruetzemacher loss, Lauzon was booked for a fight in his hometown of Boston against then-newcomer Jonathan Pearce, who figured to make easy work of a fading vet. Instead, Lauzon managed to turn back the clock for 93 seconds, blitzing Pearce and overwhelming him on his way to a stoppage on the ground. Lauzon probably will not top that performance here, but perhaps the break between fights has served him well. Even in his diminished state, this is still a winnable fight for Lauzon.

Cerrone became a legendary figure in his own right, mostly through his willingness to fight as many times as possible. He is near the top of the UFC record books in a lot of cumulative categories and racked up those stats in much less time than his other well-traveled peers. For years, Cerrone’s career played out in a series of runs. His slow starts and occasional lack of durability would eventually cost him against an elite opponent, but he would eventually find his way back to a winning streak within months, using his muay Thai and underrated grappling game to dispatch opponents, seemingly while always having his next fight booked. Factoring in Cerrone’s reckless lifestyle, it is a miracle that he held up as long as he did as a near-elite fighter, though the wheels have finally started to come off in the last few years. Cerrone is now on a six-fight winless streak, and while losses to the likes of Justin Gaethje and Conor McGregor were the types of bouts that “Cowboy” might have lost even at his peak, his most recent loss to Alex Morono was the sign that he may no longer be sustainable as a UFC fighter. Morono is scrappy, but his first solid land of the fight sent Cerrone reeling, ending it in quick fashion. Cerrone’s historically slow starts, combined with the fact that he seems more fragile than ever, do provide an opening for Lauzon to score another blitzing win. At the same time, it is still hard to trust Lauzon after tiring in such short order against Gruetzemacher, even if he was able to rebound with a win. This is basically a coinflip as to whether Lauzon can finish Cerrone immediately or if “Cowboy” can score a win shortly after that.

FEELY'S PREDICTION:The pick is Cerrone via second-round knockout.

Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Namajunas vs. Esparza
Chandler vs. Ferguson
St. Preux vs. Rua
Cerrone vs. Lauzon
UFC 274 Prelims