Preview: UFC 259 Main Card

Light Heavyweights

#4 | Aleksandar Rakic (13-2, 5-1 UFC) vs. #2 | Thiago Santos (21-8, 13-7 UFC)

ODDS: Rakic (-155), Santos (+135)

Expectations were not particularly high for Santos right out of the gate inside the UFC. “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 2 alum was quickly beaten by Cezar Ferreira in his UFC debut, and “Marreta” cashed as roughly a 6-to-1 underdog in a job-saving win over Ronny Markes. From there, Santos carved out a nice niche for himself inside the middleweight division. He never figured to get over the hump to true title contender status, but he consistently brought the violence and would score a brutal knockout more often than not. Santos’ gigantic frame eventually led him to move up to light heavyweight, and from there, it was off to the races. His first fight up at 205 pounds was a thrown-together main event against Eryk Anders, and it took Santos all of 10 months to make his way to a title fight against Jon Jones. He came about as close to winning the light heavyweight title as possible without actually getting the victory. His power and kick-heavy game threw off Jones to the point that he only walked away with a split decision, despite Santos suffering a major knee injury in the second round. Santos came back from a 16-month layoff to face Glover Teixeira in November, which came with both good news and bad news. Santos looked much the same as ever, but Teixeira managed to survive his bursts of offense and score a submission victory. As a result, Santos has gone from uncrowned champion to needing a win to stay relevant as a contender. He will try to turn back a surging prospect in Rakic here.

Austria’s Rakic has been a difficult fighter to pin down. His limited pre-UFC film showed a prospect with some potential as a kickboxer, but it was still impressive to see him handle a tough veteran like Francimar Barroso in his 2017 UFC debut. From there, Rakic's fights took a bunch of different forms. He outwrestled Justin Ledet, needed a wild comeback to finish Devin Clark and then absolutely blasted Jimi Manuwa with a head kick in the fight that made him a potential contender. In his last two bouts, Rakic’s approach has become a bit more apparent. He is comfortable backing up and attempting to counter his opponent with any manner of hard strikes, but he also looks capable of pivoting in relation to what his opponent brings to the table. In his most recent outing, a main event win over Anthony Smith in August, Rakic was more than content to reverse Smith’s takedown attempts and coast to a wrestling-heavy win. Having just turned 29 years old, Rakic figures to make a run towards the title at some point. With a win over Santos, the opportunity might come sooner rather than later.

This is a weird fight, and a lot of it comes down to how Rakic approaches it. In broad outlines, both men actually have a similar approach, relying on their length to force opponents to close the distance, at which point they can start unleashing offense. For Rakic, that means any manner of tools on the feet along with some wrestling, while Santos prefers to get things done through wild bursts of pure horsepower. If both men just decide to take that approach, stay at range and wait for their opponent to do something, it should favor Santos. Beyond being more willing to lead, he looks to bring way more knockout ability to a pure firefight. However, Santos has struggled against opponents who can crash into him and steel themselves for the damage that is about to come. David Branch might provide the starkest example of a fight that immediately turned in his favor after he just went after Santos, and Teixeira showed that a persistent wrestling and grappling game can eventually succeed. Rakic looks to clear the bar of being able to control Santos on the mat, so the question becomes whether or not he actually pursues pressure and takedowns. His last victory over Smith saw him keep “Lionheart” pinned to the mat, but Rakic was never officially credited with a takedown. All the grappling exchanges were initiated by Smith, who Rakic was consistently able to overpower and control. However, Rakic has shown enough willingness to pursue takedowns in the past—if not overwhelmingly so—that he deserves to be favored. He has a lot of dimensions to his game that can neutralize the best parts of what Santos wants to do. It is just a matter of whether or not he uses them. The pick is Rakic via decision.

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