Preview: UFC on Fox 14

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FEATHERWEIGHTS

Akira Corassani (12-5, 3-2 UFC) vs. Sam Sicilia (13-5, 3-4 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: The main card on Fox opens with a fun matchup between a pair of mid-tier power punchers. Sweden’s Corassani put together a decent run after his time on the 14th season of “The Ultimate Fighter” but finds himself on the chopping block following a pair of knockout losses to Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway. Sicilia, a native of Washington, is likewise in desperate need of a win after getting shut down by Katsunori Kikuno in his last outing.

Corassani is a sprawl-and-brawler who has made real improvements to his formerly one-note punching game. That evolution manifests itself in the form of tight, technical two- to five-punch combinations that pack some power and chopping low kicks at range. He prefers to fight moving forward but can sling a nice counter left hook as he backs out of range. The problem with Corassani’s preference for striking is a distinct lack of defensive skill.

He relies purely on angles and distance to defend strikes and almost never moves his head off the centerline, meaning that when he gets hit, he tends to eat big shots square on the chin or temple. Although he rarely tries takedowns of his own, he is a competent defensive wrestler and has little trouble keeping the fight on the feet.

Like Corassani, Sicilia is a puncher at heart. He can work both moving forward and on the counter and slings short, hard combinations of two or three shots. His right hand is particularly powerful, and at his best, he works body and head together and displays excellent timing. He owns a fairly decent repertoire of round kicks, as well, though they are secondary to his punches. Sicilia is not, however, a defensive artist. He rarely moves his head, tends to explode forward and backward in straight lines and does not respond well to kicks. The Washingtonian is a fairly competent wrestler who can stuff most takedowns and work a few of his own; and if he can get top position, his ground strikes pack vicious force.

BETTING ODDS: Corassani (-135), Sicilia (-105)

THE PICK: This should be a quick-paced striking matchup contested mostly on the feet. Corassani has a substantial advantage in terms of his ability to move in and out and cut angles, but Sicilia possesses exactly the kind of dynamite in his fists that has been such a problem for the hittable Swede in the past. While Corassani might be able to pick apart Sicilia from range, I think it more likely that the American lands a game-changing shot at some point. The pick is Sicilia by knockout in the second round.

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