Preview: UFC on ESPN 52 ‘Dariush vs. Tsarukyan’

Welterweights

#9 WW | Sean Brady (15-1, 5-1 UFC) vs. #11 MW | Kelvin Gastelum (18-8, 12-8 UFC)

ODDS: Brady (-130), Gastelum (+110)

Gastelum looks to answer a bunch of questions in this outing, the most important being whether or not he can actually make the cut down to welterweight. Gastelum came to the UFC in 2013 through a middleweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” where he essentially fell into the promotion’s lap as a top prospect. All of the hype around the season centered on Uriah Hall, but it was an unheralded 21-year-old Gastelum who grinded out a win over the former Ring of Combat champion in the season finale. From there, Gastelum cut down to what seemed like his natural weight of 170 pounds and mounted a successful campaign, buoyed by the UFC seeing an opportunity to promote a fresh Mexican-American star. Within two years, Gastelum was matched with Tyron Woodley in a fight that figured to have the winner on the shortlist of title contenders. That is where things went haywire for Gastelum, who was hospitalized during his weight cut but still managed to weigh in—nine pounds over the weight limit—and put in an understandably flat performance. The UFC forced Gastelum to move up to middleweight for one more fight, but a return to welterweight for a few more bouts seemed to be going fine—until he once again blew weight for a fight against Donald Cerrone, forcing what would become a full-time move back to 185 pounds. Gastelum’s resume at middleweight was a strange one for a few years, as his rise through the division was built on the backs of former title contenders clearly past their primes. While Gastelum put in the performance of his career against Israel Adesanya, it was followed by a slide of four losses in six fights that showed he had not evolved all that much from his form nearly a decade prior. It is understandable that Gastelum would look to coast on his natural talent up until the point that things stopped working, and the good news is that his April win over Chris Curtis saw him show some long-overdue evolution in his pressure-heavy approach. If he is truly locked in now, over a decade into his UFC career, there is a chance he has found the level of dedication that could overcome his previous struggles making 170 pounds. However, even if he makes weight, he will still have issues to overcome when he makes it into the cage, as the UFC did not do him any matchmaking favors against Brady.

Brady was clearly ready for the big time ahead of his UFC debut in 2019, though there were some concerns about how he would fare with the move up in competition. A wrestler by trade, Brady’s best regional performances saw him outwork and outlast his opponents—a luxury he might not have at the UFC level. Brady quickly cast those issues aside. His striking showed up in better form than expected and his wrestling remained a legitimate strength, allowing him to bully opponents and take them out of fights during his charge up the welterweight ladder. A big spot against Michael Chiesa in 2021 was a breakout win that did raise some concerns going forward for Brady. While he was impressively able to overpower Chiesa for a lot of the fight, the rare moments where he could not do so made his striking look like a liability against top opponents. Those worries came home to roost against Belal Muhammad in 2022, as the former Titan Fighting Championship titleholder managed to neutralize Brady’s wrestling and turn things into a bit of a rout. Brady’s physical strength gives him a high floor for as long as he is in physical prime—a bit of a concern given his recent recovery from a major staph infection—but it would be nice to see him show some evolution against Gastelum to prove he is ready for a step up to the welterweight elite. Even without that, this is still a fascinating litmus test for Gastelum at 170 pounds. He will be back at some physical parity and was difficult to outwrestle even at middleweight. Still, Brady is strong enough to test out Gastelum’s physicality and cardio, the latter being a major question given how difficult his weight cut figures to be. The bet is that Gastelum can do enough to strand Brady on the feet for two out of three rounds and take this through sheer consistency, but the matchmakers got this one right. The pick is Gastelum via decision.

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Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Turner vs. Green
Font vs. Figueiredo
Brady vs. Gastelum
Soriano vs. Stoltzfus
Silva vs. Guida
The Prelims