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Welterweights

#11 LW | Kevin Lee (18-6, 11-6 UFC) vs. NR | Daniel Rodriguez (15-2, 5-1 UFC)

ODDS: Lee (-155), Rodriguez (+135)

Where exactly does Lee stand? Lee came into the UFC as an extremely raw but talented prospect, enough so that despite losing his UFC debut to Al Iaquinta, the promotion saw enough in him to give “The Motown Phenom” some clearly smart matchmaking that allowed him to put in rounds and make his way up the ladder. Lee’s rise was relatively clean; there was a surprising knockout loss to Leonardo Santos, but that was the only slip in a 10-fight stretch that ended with wins over Francisco Trinaldo and Michael Chiesa. That was enough to earn Lee an interim title fight opposite Tony Ferguson, which saw him tire late and fall victim to an “El Cucuy” submission. Frankly, Lee’s career has not had much momentum since. A one-sided win over Edson Barboza suggested it was back to business for Lee, but Iaquinta neutralized him once again in a flat performance. Then came a move up to welterweight that wound up lasting all of one fight. Lee was matched against Rafael dos Anjos in a five-round main event that he controlled early before once again gassing and suffering a late submission loss. Lee’s move back down to lightweight saw him score a highlight-reel finish on Gregor Gillespie, but his most recent bout against Charles Oliveira was a mixed bag. Lee held his own in a lot of spots, but it felt like his natural talent was buoying an otherwise uncomfortable performance until Oliveira scored a third-round submission. After some injuries and surgeries, Lee makes his return to welterweight and has a lot to prove against Rodriguez.

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Rodriguez has been a surprising success story over the year and a half he has been on the UFC roster. He put together the type of solid resume to deserve a UFC shot, but his most prominent spot to date was an unimpressive decision win over Rico Farrington on Dana White’s Contender Series. It was underwhelming enough that Rodriguez was not given a contract. When Rodriguez took the late-notice call, he seemed mostly set up to fail against Tim Means, particularly given that the bout was essentially a hometown fight for “The Dirty Bird.” Rodriguez knocked Means silly with a surprising near-knockout before clamping on a fight-ending guillotine choke, and “D-Rod” has continued to impress since, delivering surprising power while being willing to eat offense and throw at a pace. However, the weakest part of Rodriguez’s game to date looks to be his wrestling defense, and that will basically be the story of this fight. That advantage should be there for as long as Lee looks to press it. That is an open question, as Lee’s recent performances have been more passive than they should be. As a result, it is easy to see Lee conceding to a mid-paced striking match that plays right into Rodriguez’s hands. Even if Lee presses his wrestling, there are worries over the course of three rounds. His lone welterweight bout to date against dos Anjos saw him set a pace he could not maintain, and Rodriguez is exactly the type of dangerous striker to take advantage if Lee tires himself by the third round. While the vibes around Lee’s career are not great, it is hard to bank against his natural talent and a clear skill advantage in an area that will let him control the fight, even if he will likely need to survive some trouble if he fails to score an early finish. The pick is Lee via decision.

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