Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Lineker vs. Dodson’

Lightweights

Joshua Burkman (28-13) vs. Zak Ottow (13-3)

THE MATCHUP: Burkman sits at a similar level to Nate Marquardt, except that Burkman’s chin has yet to deteriorate. “The People’s Warrior” received the first knockout of his 42-fight career in August 2015, but he has fought twice since with no sign of a weakened jawline. Thus, Burkman is an experienced fighter with a diverse record of finishes and a solid chin. What is not to like?

Well, Burkman has a habit of fighting himself even harder than his opponent does. When he is simply reacting and going with the flow of the fight, Burkman is fast and powerful and an excellent scrambler. The problem is that Burkman likes to counter, and if his first few shots scare off his opponent for a bit, he starts to get into his own head. Inexperienced fighters tend to run out of ideas; Burkman’s wealth of experience seems to have cursed him with too many. He becomes so intensely focused on what tactic he might be able to use next that he allows his opponent to work his way back into the fight and adjust.

Ottow is as green as a spring leaf compared to Burkman, however, and he accepted this fight just over a week before the date; Burkman’s original opponent, Bobby Green, pulled out of what would have been a weird, amazing fight. The good news is that Ottow was in training for a crafty, well-rounded veteran named Jos Eichelberger. The bad news is that Ottow is largely dependent on out-grappling his opponent to win. Ottow has just two knockouts to his name, with 10 submissions. He will be forced to shoot repeatedly, and Burkman, for all his faults, is not easy to take down. He also has an excellent guillotine choke, which, when it fails to put his opponent to sleep, is enough to deter most shots.

THE ODDS: Burkman (-229), Ottow (+201)

THE PICK: If Ottow were a more natural range striker, his aggressive grappling style could be a tough test for Burkman. As it is, however, Burkman will most likely keep Ottow in striking range. The Utah native is dangerous in the clinch, dangerous on the way in, dangerous in exchanges and dangerous in a scramble. Burkman may get himself into trouble when he thinks too much, but Ottow will likely come after him as often as possible, freeing up “The Ultimate Fighter 2” alum to simply fight. Burkman by second-round submission is the pick.

Last Fights » The Prelims