Preview: UFC Fight Night 199 ‘Lewis vs. Daukaus’

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Bantamweights

NR | Ricky Simon (18-3, 6-2 UFC) vs. #12 BW | Raphael Assuncao (27-8, 11-5 UFC)

ODDS: Simon (-270), Assuncao (+230)

It has become a story of what could have been for Assuncao. The Brazilian was the dark horse contender of the UFC’s bantamweight division for years, racking up win after win with a style that was low on excitement but high on effectiveness. Skilled everywhere, Assuncao used his bag of tools to neutralize and counter his opponents, typically winning a slow-paced affair. After an October 2013 win over T.J. Dillashaw, Assuncao held serve with a win over Pedro Munhoz and was slated to be Renan Barao’s next contender whenever the opportunity arose. However, when the UFC needed a Barao title defense to save UFC 173 the following May, Assuncao was injured, Dillashaw got the shot and the title picture mostly left the Ascension MMA rep behind. Save for a win over Bryan Caraway, Assuncao was on the shelf for the better part of two and a half years before returning at UFC 200 to lose a rematch against Dillashaw, and a subsequent four-fight winning streak did not get him much of anywhere, even with wins over Aljamain Sterling and Marlon Moraes. With injuries and age taking their toll, it looks like whatever margins Assuncao rode to victory are now completely gone against top-flight competition, particularly the quicker-handed crop of younger athletes. Cory Sandhagen flummoxed Assuncao with his reach and constant output, and his most recent bout resulted in a knockout loss to Cody Garbrandt that served as the lone highlight of the latter’s post-championship run. The time seems ripe for Simon to net his biggest win to date. Simon made it to the UFC and kicked off his Octagon career with a three-fight winning streak on the back of sheer aggression, rarely tamping things down as he looked to either overwhelm or outscramble his opponent. Simon’s momentum came to a screeching halt in a quick knockout loss to Urijah Faber and a one-sided decision defeat that served as a breakout victory for Rob Font. Since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, Simon has gotten back to his winning ways by channeling his aggression just a bit and doubling down even more on his wrestling—the strongest and safest part of his game. Assuncao’s grappling chops are the main source of intrigue in this fight. Even with Simon being far from the cleanest striker, he looks to have enough speed and aggression on the feet that he should be able to swamp this current iteration of Assuncao without much issue. He could dive into a submission, but the pick is Simon via decision.

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