Preview: UFC 205 ‘Alvarez vs. McGregor’

Middleweights

Chris Weidman (13-1) vs. Yoel Romero (12-1)

THE MATCHUP: To watch Romero is to contemplate weirdness itself. The man is built like a fullback but moves like a fencer. He is one of the greatest wrestlers of all-time but seems to envy his younger brother, Yoan Pablo Hernandez, because he spends most of his time in the cage striking, not grappling. He dances and feints, giving away minutes of every round, before seizing the momentum with an explosion of violence. There may have never been a better natural athlete in the middleweight division than Romero, but despite he remains anything but reliable. He is an enigma.

What a contrast to Weidman, a meat-and-potatoes fighter with a simple and reliable game. Weidman shares Romero’s martial background, and though he never achieved the same success as Romero, he is far more apt to execute takedowns and maul his opponent on the ground. Where Romero absolutely loves to strike, Weidman is a submission grappling savant, having proven himself in a hard-fought contest with Andre Galvao. At the time, Galvao had been a black belt for four years; Weidman, on the other hand, had only been training jiu-jitsu for a year.

On the ground, Weidman specializes in all things headlock. His top game is built around head control, and it is from this point of control that Weidman finds his most reliable submissions, namely the guillotine and the brabo choke. He is willing to strike from top position, where his combination of heavy hands and positional control are quite effective.

It does seem unlikely that Weidman will get Romero down, at least not until the Cuban tires -- something of which he has made an unfortunate habit. The early portions of this fight, then, will play out on the feet. In that sense, this is a battle of pressure fighter versus oddball boxer-puncher. Romero is probably more powerful than Weidman and certainly more capable of pulling off unpredictable, dynamic techniques -- go ahead and compare Weidman’s infamous wheel kick to any one of Romero’s many flying knees and you will see what I mean. However, Romero throws infrequently for two reasons: It is in his nature to float around the ring and pick his spots, and he is constantly concerned with his gas tank. Weidman knows how to cut off the cage better than any other opponent Romero has faced, and he throws a higher volume of strikes.

THE ODDS: Weidman (-165), Romero (+140)

THE PICK: Though Weidman has faced a litany of top middleweights, Romero may be his most dangerous opponent to date. He is also, however, his most inconsistent. Romero’s offense comes in wild bursts or not at all, whereas Weidman has a reliable approach to MMA that has won him many rounds. The fact that this fight will mostly play out on the feet only makes it more unpredictable, but I put my faith in Mark Henry -- the man who guided Frankie Edgar to a UFC title and beyond, the man who refined Edson Barboza to the point that he could soundly outstrike Anthony Pettis and the man who made Marlon Moraes one of the best fighters outside of the UFC. Weidman has not only worked with Henry for this camp but throughout the lead-up to his canceled rematch with Luke Rockhold, as well. I expect to see some dramatically improved combination punching, defense and footwork from the former champion, which only solidifies his advantage over the Cuban wild card. The pick is Weidman by unanimous decision.

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