Bellator 228 Main Card Preview

Featherweights

Daniel Weichel (39-11) vs. Saul Rogers (13-2)

Despite having an 8-3 record in the Bellator cage, very few people are picking Weichel to win the tournament. The 34-year-old is on a two-fight skid but both losses came by way of split decision. The first came at the hands of current champion Freire, while the other one was at lightweight, to Goiti Yamamuchi.

The German is a flat-footed, plodding striker, who can be a little too patient with his output, looking to land the perfect blow. His does well at slipping his head off the centerline to follow up with a crushing straight right hand. He has displayed some nice power in the past, which was best displayed when he floored “Pitbull” in their first matchup. He does well at mixing in leg kicks and sneaking one quickly up towards his opponent’s head. Though he hasn’t been knocked out in over four years, the veteran fighter’s chin is starting to show some deterioration, and he has been dropped in several recent fights.

While “The Weasel” has abandoned his ground game recently, preferring to keep the fight on the feet, he has a really strong grappling game. The German is hard to take down and has nice penetration on his own takedowns. He has a strong top control and constantly looks to advance his position. He is a serious submission threat — with 22 wins by that method under his belt.

Rogers might have been “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 22 winner, if he didn’t have visa issues. The Englishman had reached the finals and even defeated his replacement, eventual winner Ryan Hall, before being removed from the competition. The fairly unknown Rogers also holds wins over UFC veterans Marcin Wrzosek, Artem Lobov and newest roster addition, Billy Quarantillo.

The SBG Manchester member sports a 13-2 record and has only suffered one defeat in nearly seven years. It is a somewhat deceiving stat due to recent inactivity, only fighting four times in the last four years. On the feet, “Tha Hangman” is an aggressive pocket boxer who fires off powerful blows, with his left hook and overhand right being his most effective strikes. His lack of head movement has left him open to being blasted with heavy counter shots; he has had his legs buckled in his last two appearances. When pressured, he tends to back straight up to avoid strikes, which will be a major issue against decorated strikers. He also stands heavy on his lead leg, leaving him susceptible to calf kicks.

While his striking is a threat, the best aspect of Rogers’ game remains his grappling. Rogers has a large arsenal of takedowns. He has quick entries on his opponent’s hips and shows great strength by lifting and slamming them to the canvas. He does well in the clinch too, with some nice takedowns from the bodylock. Lastly, he always finds ways to get his foe to the canvas by catching kicks thrown at him. Once the fight hits the canvas, Rogers is a very aggressive submission artist, who has eight professional wins by tapout, plus two more during his season of “TUF.” He loses top control by looking for neck attacks like guillotine and brabo chokes.

This is a very intriguing stylistic matchup. While Rogers has some good names on his resume, joining this Grand Prix is a large step up in competition. Weichel is more battle tested and the more polished fighter, especially on the feet. However, I am worried that Weichel’s low output will give away rounds. While Rogers packs a lot of muscle on his frame, he hardly slows down in fights. His last fight against Aiden Lee was a very high paced bout, but Rogers just kept coming. This fight will be close, but I think Rogers will land some takedowns and take a very close decision. Give me Rogers by split decision.

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