Preview: UFC on ESPN 59 ‘Namajunas vs. Cortez’

Lightweights

Drew Dober (27-13, 13-9 UFC) vs. Jean Silva (13-2, 2-0 UFC)

ODDS: Dober (-110), Silva (-110)

Silva is in action for the second straight UFC event, and this marks a big chance for the Brazilian to make 2024 his breakout year. Silva earned a contract on the Contender Series in 2023 with a workmanlike decision win that showed off his strengths and weaknesses. He’s clearly in the upper tier of powerful athletes and was never in much danger during his fight, but despite a pressure-heavy style, he can be overly choosy in picking his spots to throw some hard offense. That latter issue has persisted in two UFC bouts thus far, but it also hasn’t mattered much. Westin Wilson was clearly unable to stand up to Silva in his UFC debut, but his win over Charles Jourdain two weeks ago was a much more impressive bit of business, as he walked down and stifled the Canadian before becoming the first person to knock him out. The one sour note from the Jourdain win was that Silva came in over the featherweight limit, but that shouldn’t be a concern as he turns around for a lightweight bout against Dober that could also serve as a fresh start in a new division. Dober’s a lesson in why it’s never completely safe to give up on a talent, as he showed little in his first few years on the UFC roster before suddenly developing into an exciting power puncher. Add in a historically granite chin, and Dober has been one of the most reliably entertaining and violent fighters in the UFC for the past half decade, even if his limitations have also been made quite clear. Dober doesn’t have much of an answer for an opponent who can bring any sort of consistent wrestling game to the table. After a decade in the UFC, there is the worry that some further cracks are starting to show for Dober, particularly after a May loss to Matt Frevola that saw him suffer a surprising knockout. Two fights later, it’s still unclear if that portended any loss of durability. A win over Ricky Glenn wasn’t set to test his chin, and a subsequent loss to Renato Carneiro mostly centered around Dober’s subpar wrestling defense. This might just be too much too soon for Silva, particularly while moving up a weight class, but the Brazilian appears durable in his own right; and it’s hard to doubt his knockout power after he just finished a fighter who’s as historically durable as Dober. The pick is Silva via second-round knockout.

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Namajunas vs. Cortez
Ponzinibbio vs. Salikhov
Dober vs. Silva
Bonfim vs. Loosa
Rodriguez vs. Erosa
Alhassan vs. Brundage
The Prelims