Welterweights
Demian Maia (26-9) vs. Anthony Rocco Martin (16-4)Advertisement
Reports of Maia’s demise have been greatly overstated yet again. After his memorably terrible middleweight title fight against Anderson Silva at UFC 112, safe money was on Maia never getting another title shot. Even beyond the bad will that such a fight engendered, Maia’s fairly one-dimensional game, mostly based around wrestling and jiu-jitsu, figured to eventually hit the point of diminishing returns. Indeed, losses to Mark Munoz and Chris Weidman soon put a clear ceiling on his future as a middleweight contender. Of course, Maia wound up cutting down to 170 pounds and hit the ground running. Re-focused on his grappling, Maia became an absolute terror through his first three fights at welterweight, most memorably squeezing Rick Story’s head until his nose bled like a leaky faucet. Back-to-back losses to Jake Shields and Rory MacDonald raised some flags that Maia’s welterweight run might be capped similarly to his time at 185 pounds, but he rebounded with a victory over Alexander Yakovlev and never looked back, posting seven straight wins over three years to finally get back to a UFC title fight. The ensuing year was rough, though. Maia did not get much of anything done against Tyron Woodley, who just shucked off an increasingly tired Maia over five rounds, and losses to Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman followed soon after. However, in February, it took Maia all of two and a half minutes to find Lyman Good’s back and earn a submission, which was a reminder that when he is not facing the three best wrestlers in the division, Maia can be effective against just about anyone. While things are winding down for Maia and he is no longer a contender, he will still serve as a tough breakthrough test for Martin.
It has been a slow rise for Martin, who was thrown into the deep end upon hitting the UFC. Just two years into his pro career when the UFC signed him, he was out of his depth against Rashid Magomedov and Beneil Dariush. Then a gigantic lightweight prospect, Martin slowly rounded out his game, but his fights generally followed the same beats. Martin was an effective grinder and showed some submission skill but eventually gassed out and found himself in trouble late. A 2017 loss to Olivier Aubin-Mercier was the impetus for Martin to move up to welterweight, and the results thus far have been outstanding. The cause and effect remain unclear, but Martin’s decision to relocate has coincided with his striking game finally clicking into place. The result is a well-rounded fighter who has also shown some surprising finishing ability. Even if Maia is too big of an ask right now, Martin should continue to improve for a bit longer and continue to be a concern at welterweight.
Maia fights are fairly simple to break down, as they entirely rely on his opponent’s ability to stop his wrestling and submission game. Martin is a solid grappler, but even in fights against opponents like Jake Matthews, Martin had back-and-forth exchanges on the mat; and once Maia takes an opportunity, he is not likely to give it up. Martin should at least have the skill to survive the bad positions in which Maia is likely to put him, but since this is not a five-round fight, he probably cannot rely on wearing out the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and taking over in the late rounds. Martin might score a knockout, but beyond that, the pick is Maia by fairly clear decision.
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