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Featherweights

Jimmie Rivera (22-4) vs. Cody Stamann (19-2-1)

ODDS: Rivera (-140), Stamann (+120)

After COVID-related changes decimated the top of this card, the UFC did well to put together this bout between Top 10 bantamweights on about a week’s notice. Given those circumstances, it is a surprisingly crucial fight for Rivera’s career going forward. “El Terror” is a case study in the benefits of racking up experience before hitting the big time. Despite stints in Bellator MMA and on “The Ultimate Fighter,” Rivera’s reputation as a decision machine meant that neither promotion had much interest in picking him up on a permanent basis. As a result, the New Jersey native quietly improved his skills, and by the time he finally got the UFC call in 2015, he was ready to make an impact. Rivera kicked off his UFC career with five straight wins—it brought his undefeated run to nearly a decade long—and looked ready to make the jump to title contender, but that has proven more difficult than it seemed. Rivera’s first UFC main event saw everything come crashing down in just 33 seconds, as Marlon Moraes immediately nailed him with a head kick that essentially ended the fight before it began. After rebounding against John Dodson, Rivera went winless during a disappointing 2019 campaign. He was on the wrong end of Aljamain Sterling’s breakout performance, as the New Yorker’s ability to use his physical gifts left Rivera without an answer, and his last bout was a mixed bag; it was another defeat, this time to Petr Yan, but Rivera looked sharper than ever in what turned into a middling performance for the Russian. Rivera can still clearly beat most of his opponents at bantamweight, but he finds himself in danger of being lapped by the next wave of talent at 135 pounds. That makes a win here over Stamann extremely necessary.

Like the two main eventers, Stamann was signed on late notice as a bit of an afterthought, but he rounded into a contender in short order. The Michigan native’s pre-UFC resume was fine if unimpressive, but by his third fight inside the Octagon, he had neutralized uber-prospect Tom Duquesnoy and upset veteran stalwart Bryan Caraway to make himself a person to watch. Even two years later, Sterling is the only man to beat Stamann inside the UFC, and most felt that he was robbed in a draw against another top prospect in Yadong Song. Stamann has done well despite his physical disadvantages. His complete lack of finishing ability means that “The Spartan” needs to rely on his wrestling to control his fights—something he has managed to do against everyone but Sterling. He should be helped by this fight taking place at 145 pounds due to the late notice. Stamann took on Brian Kelleher in a similar bantamweights-as-featherweights bout in June and looked even better than usual thanks to a willingness to throw more volume. The UFC announcers tried to push the narrative that Stamann should move to featherweight full-time, but he correctly noted that his stocky frame would make him a sitting duck against larger fighters. Ideally, Stamann would just fight fellow bantamweights without the huge weight cut, which is exactly what is happening here. That adds another interesting dynamic to what was already a fascinating fight, and Stamann could ride this win back up the bantamweight ladder.

This is a hard one to parse, given that these two fighters are so similar. While Rivera relies on his counterstriking and Stamann relies on his wrestling, they are both fighters who have overcome their physical disadvantages to win fights on the margins. Given how much better Stamann looked without having to cut 10 extra pounds, the question then becomes whether or not Rivera will similarly be helped by this fight taking place at featherweight. With so many variables, the most dependable thing here is the axiom that Stamann needs to outwrestle his opponents to win and Rivera is likely a strong enough wrestler to stifle that part of the Michigan native’s game. As far as the striking game goes, the advantage probably rests with Rivera, as well. He looked sharper than ever against Yan and should be helped by this being the rare time he actually has the longer reach on paper. The main concern is that Rivera is not helped nearly as much by the move up to featherweight as his opponent, ceding the volume battle to Stamann and possibly losing the rounds as a result. The pick is Rivera via decision, but this might be the closest fight on the card.

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