Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Machida vs. Romero’

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MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Antonio Carlos Jr. (4-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Eddie Gordon (7-3, 1-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3” winner Carlos makes his first appearance at middleweight, drawing “The Ultimate Fighter 19” winner Gordon. The 31-year-old Gordon’s UFC career is on the ropes after a knockout courtesy of Josh Samman’s shinbone and a close decision at the hands of Chris Dempsey, while Patrick Cummins soundly outwrestled Carlos in December.

Carlos is an excellent grappler with the elite physicality and athleticism to potentially become a top-10 kind of fighter. While still raw, he shows excellent instincts and fundamentals on the feet, showcasing good weight transfer in his punches and vicious power in his low kicks. More importantly, he does an excellent job of covering his takedown attempts with strikes, flinging a crisp right hand and then ducking under for a single or double. Bigger, strong opponents have been able to pin Carlos on the bottom, but he nevertheless maintains an active and dangerous guard with a nice arsenal of sweeps, leg locks and back-takes; from top position, his base is heavy, he passes smoothly and he can hit an array of submissions. In sum, Carlos is athletic and improving rapidly.

Gordon, a Serra-Longo Fight Team product, boasts solid physical tools and developing skills. He is mostly a puncher with good instincts for countering in the pocket, a clean rhythm and a nice 1-2 that allows him to fight longer than his relative lack of height at 6-foot would suggest. Defense is not his forte, however, and he is consistently there to be hit. Grinding in the clinch and working basic double-legs with good technique is Gordon’s Plan B, and he does an excellent job of pinning his opponent against the cage to make those things work. Nobody will confuse Gordon with a championship grappler, but he can control from top position, throw some strikes and execute basic passes. Takedown defense has generally been a strength, as well, and if planted on his back, he is quick to scramble to his feet.

BETTING ODDS: Carlos (-210), Gordon (+175)

THE PICK: Gordon is much better than he showed in his last outing, where he looked stiff, listless and slow against the unheralded Dempsey. With that said, I think Carlos has the potential to be the real deal. If he can stick and move on the outside and avoid exchanges, use his strikes to cover his takedown attempts and force Gordon into extended ground exchanges, he has a good shot at taking this. The pick is Carlos by decision.

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