Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Chiesa vs. Lee’

Women’s Strawweights

Felice Herrig (12-6) vs. Justine Kish (6-0)

THE MATCHUP: Herrig looked better than ever in her upset win over Alexa Grasso, and the veteran fighter will look to continue that momentum with another win over a touted prospect. There is only one problem: Grasso was far too inactive for her own good and allowed Herrig to steal long portions of the fight. For a fighter who has always been criticized for inconsistency, this ended up being a beautiful, intelligent performance from Herrig. Kish, on the other hand, will almost certainly not allow herself to be drawn into such a fight. She is a powerhouse, usually in excellent physical condition, and perfectly willing to walk through a punch or two to land three, four or five of her own.

A muay Thai stylist, Kish lives and dies by her ability to march forward into the clinch. Though she is imperfect -- many felt she deserved to lose to Nina Ansaroff, for example -- she is certainly imposing. From range, Kish can be an awkward fighter. She adopts a very square stance and happily steps in and out of it as she throws kicks and punches nonstop -- not combinations of strikes but a constant, stuttering stream of offense. She is absolutely hittable in this phase, and if Herrig chooses her spots to plant and throw, she could land something devastating. Once she gets to the clinch, however, Kish is not only powerful but technical. She uses collar ties to rip opponents off-balance, sidestepping and pulling to keep them from posturing up, all while looking to land quick knees and elbows.

Unless Herrig has developed yet more layers of boxing skill since the Grasso fight, she will need to take down Kish to beat her. Herrig does not shoot many takedowns -- just over three for every 15 minutes -- but Kish absolutely can be taken down, and while she is often strong enough to bench press her way to freedom, she also tends to rush scrambles and expose herself to bad positions on the ground. Remember, Herrig is an experienced submission grappler, having notched four wins by submission.

THE ODDS: Herrig (-125), Kish (-105)

THE PICK: Though Herrig seems to have finally found her footing after a career-long struggle with anxiety, Kish seems like a terrible style matchup. Her aggression is exactly the thing to shut down Herrig and return her to the familiar state of apprehension and exhaustion that she has only just begun to escape. While Herrig has a serious ground game, she has often struggled to execute it against big, strong opponents. Expect Kish to walk through some early fire and proceed to plug away in the clinch en route to the final bell. The pick is Kish by unanimous decision.

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