Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Bermudez vs. Korean Zombie’

Lightweights

James Vick (9-1) vs. Abel Trujillo (15-6) THE MATCHUP: Vick made a name for himself as the lightweight division’s “prospect killer,” dispatching promising up-and-comers like Jake Matthews and Glaico Franca through a combination of durability and guile. The moment he was matched with a top 10 fighter, however, he was beaten -- and badly. Beneil Dariush has always had some pop on his strikes, but he will probably never surpass the violence of his knockout over Vick. Now Vick takes a step back, and it is a head-scratcher for a fight analyst such as myself.

On the one hand, Trujillo is fantastically dangerous. He is an absolute crusher in the clinch and equally dangerous in mid-range, where he strings together punches, kicks and knees very well. He packs a frightening punch. Trujillo is also, however, a bit of a head case. Time and again, he allows himself to be sucked into brawls. It seems to be a habit he simply cannot shake, as Trujillo consistently begins his bouts with measured patience, only to bite down and start swinging for the bleachers as soon as his chin is touched. In this way, Trujillo is sort of a lightweight Leonard Garcia, except that he usually wins by finish rather than judging incompetence.

Therein lies the problem for Vick. On the one hand, he is extremely hittable. Vick is a tall man, and he suffers from the same problems that have haunted tall fighters for ages. His chin floats breezily above the protective barriers of his shoulders and hands, and anyone with a decent overhand can expect to find it early and often. On the other hand, Vick is a competent out-fighter. When he is able to absorb the early shots, he usually manages to establish a solid jab, which serves as the basis for the rest of his striking arsenal. Vick is also an opportunist in the mold of Ricardo Lamas, a veteran before his time who is constantly ready to jump on a submission should the opening present itself. Vick’s specialty is the guillotine.

For his part, Trujillo is a better-than-advertised wrestler, which could either allow him to break Vick’s rhythm -- or give the Texan the choke he wants. Vick has yet to score a takedown in six UFC bouts. If this one goes to the floor, it will most likely be Trujillo’s doing. One final caveat: Trujillo is filling in on short notice for Johnny Case. Trujillo is a different from Case, so that could pose problems for Vick. However, Trujillo has shown poor stamina in the past, so if he does not knock out Vick in the first round, his prospects could darken rather suddenly.

THE ODDS: Trujillo (-110), Vick (-110)

THE PICK: Vick has survived enough early scares to warrant a little faith against a fairly predictable striker; and for all of his obvious power, Trujillo only has a 23 percent knockout rate, likely because he opens up and loses focus when other strikers are able to compete with him. Trujillo has also been submitted three times in his career. Does Vick survive the onslaught or is his chin just too available? I personally did not like the look of Vick’s last loss one bit, so the pick is Trujillo by first-round TKO.

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