Preview: UFC Fight Night 246 ‘Moreno vs. Albazi’

Heavyweights

Jhonata Diniz (8-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. #11 HW | Derrick Lewis (28-12, 19-10 UFC)

ODDS: Diniz (-170), Lewis (+142)

Lewis made his UFC debut in 2014 and quickly captured the fans’ imagination as a knockout artist, but after quickly running into losses against Matt Mitrione and Shawn Jordan, the worry was that he would not stick around long as a bit of a glass cannon. Instead, Lewis won nine of his next 10 fights to charge into the title picture, buoyed by a shift in philosophy. Rather than pressing for a knockout, he was able to lay back and lean on a combination of intimidation and strength to outlast his opponents, successfully banking on the fact that most heavyweights would make a mistake and leave themselves open to get knocked out. Add in the fact that Lewis is one of the most charismatic individuals in the sport, and his run as an elite heavyweight—which lasted from roughly 2018 to 2021—was a fun bit of business for the heavyweight division. Lewis was unsuccessful in title challenges against Daniel Cormier and Ciryl Gane during that time, and things started to go against him shortly after the loss to the latter. He got knocked out in a few coinflip fights against Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich before getting outwrestled by Serghei Spivac, and during the course of that skid, there was an obvious reversion back to Lewis’ more aggressive ways. Add in a bit of expected physical decline, with Lewis now staring down his 40th birthday, and he’s now clearly unable to compete with the top few tiers of the heavyweight division. Fortunately for Lewis, that means there’s still a whole bunch of heavyweights on the UFC roster on whom he can feast. Steps back against Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Rodrigo Nascimento have resulted in clear Lewis wins. He stormed Rogerio de Lima early and slowly overwhelmed an outgunned Nascimento, affirming that a lot of opposition simply does not know how to handle his power and size.

Diniz is the latest to step up and try, and he might have a bit better chance at upending Lewis than either of his Brazilian countrymen. If nothing else, Diniz is a clear knockout threat with some impressive accuracy, owing to a long career in kickboxing prior to his move to mixed martial arts in 2022. Diniz’s two UFC wins to date, over Austen Lane and Karl Williams, have been a bit tepid. Diniz certainly hits hard, but he can be a bit overly patient in picking his spots until he lands the shot that gets his momentum going. That means Lewis is certainly going to land the first big shots of the fight almost immediately, and while Diniz is better equipped than most to either score a knockout with return fire or knock him out in the later rounds, that opening salvo is likely going to be enough to catch the Brazilian off-guard. The pick is Lewis via first-round knockout.

Jump To »
Moreno vs. Albazi
Blanchfield vs. Namajunas
Diniz vs. Lewis
Machado vs. Ribeiro
Barriault vs. Stoltzfus
Malott vs. Giles
The Prelims