Preview: UFC Fight Night 150 ‘Jacare vs. Hermansson’

FOTN contender clocking in! #UFCFtLauderdale pic.twitter.com/vyzjrYV17R

— UFC (@ufc) April 23, 2019

Welterweights

Alex Oliveira (19-6-1, -205) vs. Mike Perry (12-4, +165): Bring on the violence. When he burst onto the UFC scene in 2016, Perry was an interesting prospect. Outside of the cage, he was every bit the human personification of Florida, but when compared to teammate and fellow ne’er-do-well Alex Nicholson, “Platinum Mike” had a fighting style that was intelligently pared down to focus on his strengths: durability and punching power. Perry focused on a simple pressure boxing approach that allowed him to win a few wars and get some shine as a cult favorite. However, in the ensuing two-plus years, Perry has done little to evolve. He remains effective against the lower levels of the roster, but the UFC seems to wish him to be something more, resulting in a few prominent spots against fighters like Santiago Ponzinibbio and Donald Cerrone in which Perry simply flopped. The Cerrone loss in November was quite damning, if only because Perry snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. As expected, the Floridian had success simply stalking Cerrone, but for some reason, he started initiating some wrestling exchanges -- a decision that quickly got him swept and submitted. Nothing about Perry suggests he will start taking the more intelligent approach from here on out, but in this case, that is perfectly fine, as his bout with Oliveira should be absolute chaos.

In terms of prioritizing physical gifts over an intelligent approach, Oliveira is one of the few men who can match Perry. For a while, it was confusing to figure out exactly what the Brazilian “Cowboy” was; he would show some natural striking instinct but sometimes get out-boxed, and a focus on bulling around opponents in the clinch resulted in wildly varying levels of success. Over time, it has become apparent that Oliveira is a natural fighter with some solid instincts who is completely focused on power over technique. He has some tricky tools and some knockout power, but at the end of the day, he is the type of guy who is most willing to incite a parking-lot brawl. He is capable of throwing around and tapping out Tim Means without much of an issue but manages to clearly lose a round on the mat to the shopworn 2018 version of Carlos Condit. Oliveira’s last fight against Gunnar Nelson felt like the window closing on the Brazilian as an actual contender, as Nelson managed to score a submission despite being physically overwhelmed. Even if Oliveira never improves his technique, he will still rank among the elite action fighters in the sport. Again, this should be a war.

The very thing that makes this fight exciting makes it hard to call, as neither of these men is going to approach this fight with an intelligent game plan. If this is a pure stand-and-bang brawl, this should be Perry’s fight to lose. Similar to the Yancy Medeiros fight, Oliveira should be able to cause some damage, but Perry has shown an indestructible chin where Oliveira has not and should figure to win a war of attrition. The real suspense comes if these two find their way into the clinch. Perry is capable of overpowering his opponents with some brutal clinch strikes -- just ask Jake Ellenberger -- but Oliveira has had success bullying everyone but technical grapplers to the mat, and Perry certainly does not fit that description. Perry might be one of the few opponents able to match Oliveira on pure strength in the clinch, but it is hard to pick against Oliveira throwing around Perry and scoring a submission if these two find their way grinding against the cage. It would be a lot easier pick for Perry if that Cerrone fight did not show an alarming lack of understanding of his own strengths, so this could be another one where he becomes his own worst enemy and hands himself a loss. The pick is Oliveira via second-round submission.

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