Welterweights
Tim Means (28-10-1) vs. Niko Price (12-2)Advertisement
It is nice to know Means still has it. After an abbreviated UFC run at lightweight -- which in retrospect was fairly ridiculous, given his 6-foot-2 frame -- Means returned to 170 pounds and found his way back to the Octagon in 2014, at which point he established himself as one of the division’s best bringers of violence. He also enjoyed a bunch of success, winning six out of seven at one point, but never did quite get over the hump into big, relevant fights. The closest he came was a slated 2016 bout against Donald Cerrone, which was scuttled when Means was flagged for a tainted supplement. In the last few years, Means has started to flag a bit. He has always had a tendency to get lured into a slow-paced kickboxing match, but against Belal Muhammad and Sergio Moraes, his doing so seemed less effective than ever, leading to two controversial split decision losses. That is why it was comforting to see him absolutely obliterate Ricky Rainey in his most recent appearance, showing he still has the willingness to get after it and bring the action if he needs to. Having just turned 35 and lived a hard life, Means is probably cemented as an action fighter and a gatekeeper moving forward, but he can still provide some bangers, and this fight against Price should be one of them.
It is difficult to make sense of Price, who is about as much of an agent of chaos as there is on the UFC roster. When the UFC picked up Price, he had some obvious potential, with some knockout power and a limited if dangerous offensive grappling game, but he has not developed much in the ensuing two-plus years. Not that it really matters, though, as Price can leverage his physical gifts, namely his long arms and big fists that give him some surprising knockout power. Price just flows along with whatever happens in the fight until he suddenly scores the knockout, and the unique nature of his power means that it often comes in unexpected positions. His July knockout of Randy Brown somehow came via hammerfists while Price was laying on his back, a sort of reverse ground-and-pound. Price’s issues appear to come against better athletes rather than when opponents try to pick him apart. In the latter case, he often finds a way to run over his opponent, but against those who could match him in speed and power, Price wound up losing brawls against Vicente Luque and Abdul Razak Alhassan. Price has apparently already decided that the bigger camp life is not for him, so he will probably remain the same flawed fighter going forward. At least it makes for good action.
It will be interesting to see how Means approaches this one, since his level of aggression is going to be the key to how this fight plays out. If this is a redux of the Rainey fight and Means heads into this bout committed to bring the pain, he has a solid chance at winning a violent sprint if the fight devolves. However, if Means is in his more typical recent form, this will probably be a slow-paced striking match, with Price hoping to score a big, off-kilter blow. In such a scenario, Price can probably pull that off, as this feels most similar to his fight against Alan Jouban, where the latter was dictating the fight until Price swooped in with an unexpectedly effective burst of violence that knocked him for a loop. Means’ length may mean that Price has to cover a bit more ground to hit that knockout shot, but that still seems like something the Floridian is more than capable of doing. It will probably come out of nowhere, but the pick is Price via second-round knockout.
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