Preview: UFC Fight Night 123 ‘Swanson vs. Ortega’

Bantamweight

Marlon Moraes (19-5-1) vs. Aljamain Sterling (14-2)

ODDS: Moraes (-140), Sterling (+120)

ANALYSIS: Before we get to any sort of technical analysis of this showdown, let us take a moment to applaud the bushido and/or chutzpah of both men involved in this bantamweight clash. Moraes is three weeks removed from his split decision over John Dodson in Norfolk, Virginia, and though he did not get to fill in for Dominick Cruz against Jimmie Rivera like he wanted, Aljamain Sterling is a top-15 opponent at worst. Meanwhile, Sterling went from a bout with Rani Yahya -- a man he would have been favored to beat -- to being an underdog against an opponent who poses a far worse style matchup. This is just two tough dudes fighting one another under less-than-ideal circumstances, which is to be commended.

Sterling, 28, went 12-0 in his pro career before suffering his first two losses consecutively, dropping split decisions to Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assuncao. The Serra-Longo Fight Team rep has rebounded successfully with decision wins over jiu-jitsu ace Augusto Mendes and former UFC bantamweight champion Renan Barao in 2017; even so, Mendes and Barao were advantageous style clashes for “Funkmaster Aljo,” whose approach lives up to his nickname, for better and for worse.

Sterling is idiosyncratic, to say the least. He absorbs just 1.33 significant strikes per minute, the lowest active number in the UFC bantamweight division, yet it is not on account of his defense. Sterling’s striking remains a hesitant, herky-jerky kick-a-thon, which does not necessarily compliment the fact that he is at his best when he is scrambling on the mat. While Sterling only lost by slim margins to divisional standouts like Caraway and Assuncao, his lack of a boxing game was on display, as well as the importance it could play in setting up his shots and scrambles for the better. This is problematic against Moraes.

Like Sterling, Moraes dropped a split decision to Assuncao, but the “Magic” man’s Octagon debut in June was a fight he should have won. More than that, Assuncao has a style for all seasons and can make any elite bantamweight’s night difficult. Moraes thrives when he can dictate the range and pace of a fight with his devastating low kicks and then counter with his hands behind them. Sterling’s standup still largely subsists on his leg and body kicks from range, hence his difficulty in closing distance. That begs the question: How does he get a grip on Moraes and put him on the mat?

Moraes will jab to keep Sterling away and, when he feels opportunistic, hack into his legs as hard as possible in hopes of killing his offense. Sterling is likely too good -- and conservative -- to get stopped by Moraes, but unless he can stay close to the Brazilian and generate a large amount of scrambles out of the clinch, it is hard to imagine him effecting consistent offense. Moraes wins by hard-fought decision in a bit of a stylistic standoff.

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