Preview: UFC 259 Main Card

UFC Bantamweight Championship

C | Petr Yan (15-1, 7-0 UFC) vs. #1 | Aljamain Sterling (19-3, 11-3 UFC)

ODDS: Yan (-115), Sterling (-105)

Like Israel Adesanya in the main event, Yan’s rise to the top of his division had an air of inevitability about it, but it was still extremely impressive, given that it took the Russian just 25 months to claim the UFC’s bantamweight title. Yan has made his way up the ladder in as clean a progression as anyone. His 2018 campaign saw him be every bit the buzzsaw of violence as advertised in wins over Teruto Ishihara, Jin Soo Son and Douglas Silva de Andrade. That gave way to tough veteran tests against John Dodson and Jimmie Rivera, who were both able to slow down Yan—in Rivera's case, it was probably a career-best performance—in clear decision losses. Urijah Faber put in a game effort, but he eventually got put away by a much sharper and younger talent, which set up Yan as a top contender heading into 2020. Henry Cejudo’s decision to vacate the bantamweight title left the UFC with many strong options from a deep well of contenders, but in the end, Yan was matched against Jose Aldo in a fight that went the same way as many of the Russian’s fights before. Aldo offered some resistance, but Yan’s ability to build round over round on his way to bulldozing his opponent was once again on display. Now the real fun starts, as Yan lords over what might be the best division in the UFC, particularly since a lot of current and upcoming contenders look to finally be hitting their respective strides. First up: Sterling, who is clearly in his career-best form.

Sterling’s rise towards the bantamweight title felt inevitable in its own right, though there have been some major hiccups along the way. The “Funk Master” made his UFC debut in 2014 with a rightfully large amount of hype. Beyond the strong wrestling and unorthodox grappling that brought him to the game, Sterling’s long frame figured to make him a dangerous striker to deal with sometime down the road. Sterling impressed with wins in his first four UFC bouts but only seemed to get attention for being one of the first fighters to be vocal about their free agency, which ended up with him re-signing with the promotion in 2016. That led to a fight against Bryan Caraway that felt like a jumping-off point towards bigger things, but it was instead the point where Sterling’s career went sideways. Sterling’s inefficient and kick-heavy striking game, combined with some 50-50 grappling exchanges, led to Caraway winning a contentious split decision. It was much the same story for Sterling’s next fight—a split decision loss to Raphael Assuncao. While Sterling easily could have won both fights, he suddenly found himself in the position of needing a win over Augusto Mendes to stay relevant in a deep division. Sterling looked to be putting things together from there, but a 2017 loss to Marlon Moraes seemed to be the most significant setback yet. Beyond putting another contender ahead of Sterling, the fight ended via knockout in just 67 seconds. However, Sterling picked up the pieces once again, and his 2019 win over Rivera seems to have been the point where he turned into the top contender that everyone expected. His striking now looks layered and natural, and Sterling has shown the ability to keep a hellish pace on his opponents. Sterling's June win over Cory Sandhagen essentially made him undeniable as the next top contender. He took down Sandhagen and choked him out in just 88 seconds—a victory that has aged even better with Sandhagen’s impressive performances since.

It is difficult to know where to start with this one, which looks to be the best fight of this stacked card. The most obvious factor is Sterling’s wrestling. The Long Islander is probably the best wrestler in the UFC’s bantamweight division, and his most recent form has seen him look to get off to a hot start by immediately pressing that advantage. However, one of the secrets about Yan—since his vicious striking ability is the highlight of his game and most of his fights have taken place standing—is that he is actually a solid wrestler based on the moments where he has been pressed into using those skills. Off the bat, this is not as simple as Sterling taking a talented striker to the mat and being able to easily win the fight there; if it winds up that way in practice, Sterling is impressive beyond even the level he has shown thus far. While Sterling may not be able to overwhelm Yan in the clinch or on the ground, that might be where he can slow down the Russian, which figures to be the best way for opponents to approach beating the bantamweight champion. Yan constantly presses the action, but tends to have a process towards getting his reads and finding the best path towards destroying his opposition. In the past, opponents have found a way to delay the inevitable by interrupting Yan’s information-gathering sessions and forcing him to reset and regroup. Can Sterling’s wrestling and clinch work at least serve as an avenue to do that? There is also a similar dynamic on the feet. Simply put, Sterling’s length and ability to fight at range as needed is something with which Yan has not really had to deal at this level. While Pedro Munhoz is not nearly as artful a bringer of violence as Yan, his fight against Sterling showed that the Serra-Longo Fight Team rep can now play an effective matador while putting a pace and damage on his opponent in return. Again, Yan is such a talent that there is an inevitability to his fights. At some point, he is going to figure out what his opponent brings to the table and pick the points where he can take over the fight in one-sided fashion. Unless Sterling can earn a submission early, which seems unlikely, that figures to happen here. While Yan will probably take over the fight by the final horn and while Sterling will likely be in the position of needing to survive in order to hang on for a victory, the challenger does seem to have the tools to slow down the champion and win rounds until the fight gets to that point. Either way, both men figure to be in nothing but excellent and interesting fights for the next few years. The pick is Sterling via narrow decision.

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