Preview: UFC on ESPN 30 Prelims

Middleweights

NR | Wellington Turman (16-5, 1-3 UFC) vs. NR | Sam Alvey (33-15-1, 10-10-1)

ODDS: Turman (-130), Alvey (+110)

Winless in his last six fights, this is probably a make-or-break fight for Alvey. For a few years, Alvey carved out a shockingly successful niche for himself. His counter-heavy style could make for some terrible fights, but Alvey eventually found a knockout more times than not. Add in his willingness to fight frequently and his unique persona—Alvey lives the “Smilin’ Sam” gimmick from beginning to end, walking out to Train with his wife in tow—and he positioned himself as someone memorable, if nothing else. However, as evidenced by his record, the last few years have not been kind to Alvey. Weight issues forced a move up to light heavyweight, which did not really work out. Alvey was always skating a thin line with his level of inactivity, and the move up to 205 pounds came as he was less willing than ever to pull the trigger, a trend made even worse by a noticeable dip in his durability. On the plus side, Alvey has had a bit more life in his recent fights—a split draw against Da Un Jung in October was impressive and he had some moments against Julian Marquez—but it is difficult to say things are pointed in the right direction for him heading into this fight against Turman. Of course, things are not going much better for Turman at the moment, though in his case it is due to a lack of experience rather than the worry of a late-career decline. Turman came to the UFC young and with a decent resume, but the grappling-heavy approach with which he found his success has not gotten him much of anywhere in the UFC, save for a win against Markus Perez in late 2019. Turman tried to stand with Andrew Sanchez and looked uncomfortable before getting knocked out, and a refocus on his wrestling led to his being reversed, overwhelmed and pounded out by Bruno Silva in June. It is hard to have much confidence in Alvey nowadays, but Turman might actually provide enough discomfort and defensive openings that he could, for the first time in over three years, find a knockout blow. For Turman, this will likely just be an ugly grind at best, but the bet is that Alvey stops his slide. The pick is Alvey via second-round knockout.

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