Preview: UFC Vegas 108 ‘Taira vs. Park’
Rebecki vs. Duncan
Lightweights
Mateusz Rebecki (20-2, 4-1 UFC) vs. Chris Duncan (13-2, 4-1 UFC)Odds: Rebecki (-200); Duncan (+170)
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Rebecki in some ways feels like a throwback. Short for the division, stocky and extremely powerfully built, there is something to his game and physique that are reminiscent of a classic early-2000s MMA wrestle-boxer. He has built his approach around the understanding that he will give up height and reach to 95% of his foes, but usually has no trouble getting into range thanks to his athleticism, aggression and the dual threat of his punches and level change. While he is not a perfectly polished offensive wrestler, he usually manages to get the fight to the ground eventually through persistence and sheer strength. Once there, he has hard ground-and-pound, and is quick to threaten with submissions on foes who turn their back or leave a limb hanging.
Rebecki’s brute-force approach to wrestling cost him in his lone
UFC loss, as he spent too much energy hauling Diego
Ferreira down, spent more energy trying to keep the decorated
grappler there, and was left in the dust after about six minutes of
fighting. He returned to form against Myktybek
Orolbai in October, coming out ahead in a “Fight of the Year”
candidate, and had plenty of gas left in the tank in Round 3.
Whether that was due to the extra five-pound allowance or the
relative lack of grappling remains an open question.
In contrast to Rebecki, Duncan is tall and long-limbed, but not much of an athlete. He was a fun action fighter and contender in Cage Warriors but tended towards wild brawls that saw him take as much damage as he dished out, in wins as well as losses. It was an endearing approach, but one that figured to get him knocked out quickly by UFC lightweights.
Instead, Duncan has found a slightly more cerebral approach, one that leans on his solid technique on the feet to keep him in the fight against nimbler strikers while he waits for them to get tired or make a mistake. The result has been back-to-back wins by guillotine choke, including one over Jordan Vucenic in his most recent outing that saw him avenge a loss in CW and make good as a 3-to-1 underdog.
My preview podcast co-host Keith Shillan and I were deeply divided on this one. Keith saw Rebecki as being better than Duncan just about everywhere and considered this one of the easier fights on the card to pick, but I’m thinking upset. If Rebecki clocks Duncan for a knockout or club n’ sub and this is all over in Round 1, it won’t be a shock, but Duncan seems to have gotten much better about not just running headfirst into his opponents’ best weapons. I can’t get Rebecki’s last two fights out of my head, so the pick here is for Duncan to navigate a minefield early, make Rebecki work for everything, and pick up the final two rounds to sew up his third straight upset win.
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Taira vs. Park
Rebecki vs. Duncan
Brener vs. Ribovics
Rosa vs. Cornolle
Magny vs. Zaleski dos Santos
Vallejos vs. Silva
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