Preview: UFC 295 ‘Prochazka vs. Pereira’

Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship

#4 HW | Tom Aspinall (13-3, 6-1 UFC) vs. #2 HW | Sergei Pavlovich (18-1, 6-1 UFC)

ODDS: Aspinall (-118), Pavlovich (-102)

This interim title fight does not have the gravitas of the Jon Jones-Stipe Miocic heavyweight title fight initially slated to headline this card, but this is certainly an intriguing late-notice replacement between two fighters who could represent the future of the division. Aspinall came into the UFC with some hype in 2020 as one of the top prospects out of Britain, but it was still impressive to see just how much he backed things up. A former boxer with a grappling background, Aspinall has a rare combination of size and speed for a heavyweight, and he blew through Jake Collier and Alan Baudot so quickly that the UFC clearly saw him as a prospect to prioritize. Up next was a fight against Andrei Arlovski that probably has to qualify as Aspinall’s toughest fight to date, if only because the Belarusian survived to the second round. To his credit, while Aspinall showed some signs of tiring after being unable to score a finish, he pivoted to his ground game and found a submission quickly into the second frame. Wins over Sergey Spivak and Alexander Volkov were impressively clean, proving Aspinall to be a finishing threat in every phase. A headlining spot in London against Curtis Blaydes was a potential coronation of Aspinall as the next heavyweight contender. Instead, Aspinall tore up his knee just 15 seconds into the fight. The good news? Aspinall picked up exactly where he left off upon his return in July, finishing Marcin Tybura in just 73 seconds. Injury aside, Aspinall has yet to face much adversity in his UFC career, which might finally change against Pavlovich.

Pavlovich’s UFC career has been a bit amusing, if only for how the fights themselves have played out. Signed by the UFC in 2018, the Russian was a former Greco-Roman wrestling standout who showed some cardio and ancillary skills on the regional scene. Naturally, his UFC career has consisted entirely of quick brawls that have ended within the first round. Pavlovich’s UFC debut did not go particularly well, as Alistair Overeem marched him down, shoved him over and then finished him on the mat, but that seems to have lit a fire under the Russian in the fights since, as he is now more willing to push forward and play the role of hammer as needed. A big 2019 campaign, which saw Pavlovich rebound from the Overeem loss with quick wins over Marcelo Golm and Maurice Greene, figured to set him up for some big things heading into 2020, but instead, he was a forgotten man for the better part of three years. Thanks to injuries and visa issues, Pavlovich would not return until a March 2022 bout against countryman Shamil Abdurakhimov. After that win, Pavlovich made up for lost time with sub-minute wins over Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa to cap off 2022. Both men decided to start a brawl with Pavlovich, only to find him standing his ground and landing the harder shots. Blaydes could not even pivot to his wrestling before Pavlovich knocked him out in April. It all leaves Pavlovich in a similar spot as Aspinall.

It has been a clear rise for both men, and there is not really much of a track record as to how either of them handles adversity. Aspinall is clearly the faster fighter and more diverse offensive threat, but it is unclear if he can leverage that into a win. He does like to swarm for a finish, but that runs two risks: Pavlovich has proven more than capable of scoring a knockout when things descend into chaos, and Aspinall clearly flagged during the one time he was not able to get that quick win. It will be interesting to see how Aspinall’s cardio holds up if the Brit takes a more patient approach and picks Pavlovich apart from distance. He clearly has the speed and range to follow that game plan. However, it would also be a pivot from Aspinall’s usual game and still might not work, as Pavlovich was able to keep his cardio up and win his share of slow-paced decisions on the regional scene. Aspinall going to his wrestling early and often might have the highest risk-reward ratio of any potential game plan, as it seems much likelier to finish Pavlovich by submission. The Russian showed little from his back against Overeem, but there is still a decent chance that Aspinall would just end up charging right into danger. In a counterintuitive way, Aspinall winning so cleanly in the past makes him a riskier pick, if only because there is not much to go on in terms of his ability to hold up in a firefight. Meanwhile, Pavlovich has won his fair share of quick and messy brawls. Aspinall figures to beat Pavlovich to the literal punch but also seems unlikely to one-shot him, so the bet is that this quickly descends into heavyweight madness—a mold of fight where Aspinall could wind up winning, but Pavlovich is much more proven. The pick is Pavlovich via first-round knockout.

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Prochazka vs. Pereira
Aspinall vs. Pavlovich
Dern vs. Andrade
St. Denis vs. Frevola
Sabatini vs. Lopes
The Prelims