Preview: UFC 272 ‘Covington vs. Masvidal’

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Lightweights

#6 LW | Rafael dos Anjos (30-13, 19-11 UFC) vs. NR | Renato Carneiro (16-4-1, 8-4 UFC)

ODDS: Dos Anjos (-180), Carneiro (+155)

Given that he has been a reliable stalwart for the UFC over the better part of his career, things sure have been quiet on the dos Anjos front recently. After a rough start to his UFC career all the way back in 2008, dos Anjos began a slow and unspectacular march up the lightweight ladder until he suddenly found himself as a top contender. Still, dos Anjos was mostly an afterthought headed into his shot at the title. UFC 185 marked the beginning of the promotion’s “Welcome to the Show” campaign in 2015, and it was focused around Anthony Pettis—the champion dos Anjos was challenging. Dos Anjos spoiled the UFC’s best-laid plans when he put together a one-sided win over 25 minutes, using his newfound pressure game to stifle Pettis and ground out a clear win. Dos Anjos’ title reign wound up being more memorable for what did not happen rather than what actually did. After successfully defending his belt in just 66 seconds against Donald Cerrone, dos Anjos had the good fortune of being lightweight champion when then-featherweight Conor McGregor decided to move up in weight for another title, setting the Brazilian up for a big-money payday. Instead, dos Anjos suffered the worst-timed injury of his career. By the time he had recovered, McGregor was fully ensconced in a feud with Nate Diaz, and dos Anjos was left defending his belt against Eddie Alvarez, who knocked out the Brazilian for both the title and subsequent opportunity to fight McGregor. After losing a fight to Tony Ferguson, dos Anjos moved up to welterweight in 2017 and had a banner year, running through Tarec Saffiedine, Neil Magny and Robbie Lawler to make himself a contender in a second division. That proved to be the peak of dos Anjos’ run at 170 pounds. Faced with the rising class of stronger wrestlers and grapplers, dos Anjos got overwhelmed by opponent after opponent, with his lone win during a five-fight stretch coming against fellow converted lightweight Kevin Lee. After losing to Michael Chiesa at the start of 2020, dos Anjos decided to move back to 155 pounds, but that run has not gotten much momentum yet due to various reasons. Injuries and COVID-19 issues scrapped multiple matchups, and dos Anjos’ lone fight back at lightweight was a November 2020 victory over Paul Felder, who himself briefly stepped out of retirement on late notice in order to save the fight. Dos Anjos was initially slated to fight Rafael Fiziev to kick off 2022, first in a main event spot a few weeks ago and then on this card. However, due to issues on the Fiziev side, that has only added to the pile of scheduled dos Anjos fights that have not come through. At least dos Anjos does get to fight on this card, as Carneiro has stepped up on less than a week's notice to take on the former lightweight champ.

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Carneiro has followed an inconsistent path throughout his UFC career, but he is hopefully turning a bit of a corner as he comes into this fight. The Brazilian was not a particularly high-profile prospect when he got the surprising call to take on Jeremy Stephens in 2017. He was an obvious talent, but inactivity due to injuries left him mostly out of sight and out of mind. Carneiro was able to use the opportunity as a springboard towards relevancy. Best known as a grappler at the time, Carneiro was able to stay elusive and frustrate Stephens on the feet, taking an impressive decision win. From there, Carneiro looked set to march into the featherweight elite, but 2019 was a year that shattered both his momentum and confidence. He was a victim of Jose Aldo’s late-career renaissance, and Chan Sung Jung sparked him in just 58 seconds. Carneiro subsequently decided to move up to lightweight, which has been a mixed bag, particularly after a 2020 loss to Fiziev re-affirmed that he can struggle against opponents who can establish some early footing through knockout power. However, his win over Alexander Hernandez, just three weeks ago, does provide some cause for hope. It was a weak start for Carneiro, but for the first time in a while, he showed the ability to stage a comeback, steeling himself and crumpling Hernandez quickly into the second round. If nothing else, that makes this a much more interesting matchup than it would have been a month ago, though this still seems like a tough ask for Carneiro, particularly given that this is still a five-round fight despite the short notice. Pressure has been the path to beating dos Anjos in recent years, and that does not seem like a change-up that Carneiro is willing to use, if he even has that idea in his bag of skills. If anything, Carneiro figures to be more comfortable trying to pick dos Anjos off from range. That may find some early success as dos Anjos finds a groove and shakes off the rust, but the former lightweight champion does figure to eventually close the distance and prove himself to be a much physically stronger wrestler and grappler. Even with Carneiro’s skill on the mat, this bout figures to eventually become an exhausting affair for a man who was not expecting to fight until about five days ago. Dos Anjos should eventually dominate in deeper waters. The pick is dos Anjos via fifth-round stoppage.

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