Preview: UFC 235 ‘Jones vs. Smith’

UFC Welterweight Championship

Tyron Woodley (19-3-1) vs. Kamaru Usman (14-1)

ODDS: Woodley (-175), Usman (+155)

It has been a strange if successful run for Woodley. For a good few years, the UFC and its fanbase were seemingly against the current welterweight champion, as Woodley’s neutralizing style was placed in contrast to more interesting options. First, he upended the war-filled title reign of Robbie Lawler in a little over two minutes. The next year of his title reign was spent shutting down the flashy striking of Stephen Thompson and the grappling mastery of Demian Maia -- fights which saw about five minutes’ worth of good action. Over the last year, however, it seems like people are finally starting to warm to Woodley. Being in constant conflict with UFC management now has its perks, as UFC President Dana White’s Q rating falls through the floor; and Woodley’s win over Darren Till in September was a reminder of how dynamic a fighter he can be at his best. For about a round, it looked like a typical recent Woodley affair, with the champion parking himself against the cage with a focus on countering and shutting down his opponent’s options rather than pushing the offense himself. Once the second round started, Woodley blasted Till and proceeded to put on a grappling clinic before scoring a submission victory. Woodley’s title reign now has some momentum, but in typical UFC fashion, it does seem like the promotion is doing its best to kill it. For as odious as Colby Covington is, it seemed a natural next step that the promotion would go with his bigger name in a natural feud that would be winnable for Woodley. Instead, Woodley faces the tougher option with less name recognition, as Usman steps to the plate as the champion’s toughest test yet.

From a pure sporting perspective, Usman is the correct pick to challenge Woodley. You can make the case that he has been the second-best welterweight in the promotion for a while now, but it was not until 2018 that “The Nigerian Nightmare” managed to build up a resume to reflect that possible truth. One of the saving graces of the unsuccessful American Top Team vs. The Blackzilians season of “The Ultimate Fighter” was that it gave the promotion Usman, who spent the first few years of his career crushing his opponents with his strong wrestling game. That quickly led Usman to a zone that nobody wants to be in -- a boring fighter with little name value and a reputation for being tough -- but his 2017 bout with Sergio Moraes showed that he had other skills to fall back on, as he spent the fight hunting for a knockout he quickly netted, sending the Brazilian into a somersault in the process. From there, Usman got the big push, passing tests against Maia and Rafael dos Anjos with flying colors. Usman may still be a bit unnatural as a striker, as you can see him plotting his next move, but he has gone into every fight with an excellent game plan and managed to come out on top when it goes to the mat. Strangely, this title shot marks Usman’s pay-per-view debut, but he seems ready to make good on the opportunity, as well as the chance to make some history as Africa’s first UFC champion.

This may not be a pretty fight, but it is probably the most intellectually interesting one on the card. Upfront, if Usman manages to get his wrestling going -- which is a possibility and says more about how excellent Usman is as a wrestler than anything about Woodley -- that would be his path to victory. Usman knows where his bread is buttered. His bout against Emil Meek sticks out as an example of Usman not even playing with fire and deciding to keep things safe, and while keeping Woodley down may be a daunting task, if he can do it, it represents an easier way to win than trying not to get knocked out. Speaking of which, the way this bout plays out on the feet should be an excellent chess match. If Woodley plays his usual patient game, there is an argument it favors Usman. Beyond the fact that Usman will probably be able to win rounds through volume, this fight will probably come down to how natural he is on the feet and his ability to minimize moments where he is caught thinking. Woodley still has the ability to cover a frighteningly impressive amount of ground to land a big power shot whenever he chooses to throw. If this happens at a slow pace, Usman should be better able to process the fight moment by moment and have his next move ready before the next exchange. With that said, Usman has looked hittable enough on the feet, particularly in the Maia fight, that Woodley is going to have his moments to divebomb in and connect with his chin. While concerns about Usman’s chin are probably overblown, he probably cannot withstand the power that Woodley brings to the table. It will be a tough matchup for as long as it lasts -- this comes with the caveat that this all goes out the window if Usman can keep this fight on the mat -- but the call is for Woodley to catch Usman while the Nigerian is too slow to react and score the second-round knockout.

Next Fight » Lawler vs. Askren