Preview: 2023 PFL 1 ‘Loughnane vs. Moraes’

Light Heavyweights

Rob Wilkinson (17-2, 4-0 PFL) vs. Thiago Santos (22-11, 0-0 PFL)

ODDS: Wilkinson (-190), Santos (+155)

After a forgettable UFC stint that saw him suffer back-to-back knockout losses at the hands of Siyar Bahadurzada and Israel Adesanya at 185 pounds, Wilkinson has remade himself into a formidable light heavyweight talent. That transformation culminated with a $1 million victory over Omari Akhmedov in the 2022 PFL light heavyweight final, which resulted in “Razor Rob” being named Sherdog’s “Comeback Fighter of the Year.” Wilkinson was known as primarily a grappler earlier in his MMA career, but that perception has changed since he signed with the PFL. Despite moving up a weight class, Wilkinson is a massive 205-pounder at 6-foot-3, with an 80-inch reach. He owns a solid jab and throws heavy punching combinations at range, often punishing foes with a heavy right cross. The former Hex Fight Series champion is just as dangerous in close quarters, where he enjoys success with heavy hooks, uppercuts and knees. Another positive development to Wilkinson’s game is the increased use of feints, so he does not simply have to resort to brawling. While Wilkinson has finished all six of his opponents inside of two rounds during his current winning streak, his gas tank still appears to be solid, because he has shown an impressive output as he blitzes his opponents with offense.

Santos enters the 2022 PFL campaign as one of the league’s more high-profile free agent acquisitions. This signing comes with a caveat: The 39-year-old “Marreta” lost five of his last six UFC appearances. It should be noted that all of those were against high-level opponents—Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira, Aleksandar Rakic, Magomed Ankalaev and Jamahal Hill—including three that have held UFC gold at 205 pounds. Still, the optics are not good at this point for a fighter approaching 40 with a history of knee issues. Santos’ fights have become increasingly more difficult to watch, as he is far more reluctant to engage than he was earlier in his career. With that said, striking is a two-way street, and many opponents still respect Santos’ kicking and countering ability, which can make for tepid affairs. Teixeira, who was rocked repeatedly by Santos, is a prime example of what can happen when an opponent elects to try and close the distance against the former middleweight title challenger. Santos took a different approach against Hill in his final UFC appearance, as he repeatedly initiated the clinch and shot 20 takedowns before succumbing to his opponent via technical knockout in Round 4.

Wilkinson will hold a four-inch reach advantage, and it is possible he will go against his recent history and take a more conservative approach out of respect for his opponent’s talents. The Australian has proven hittable in his fights, and though his chin has held up, even a diminished version of Santos is more dangerous on the feet than any of Wilkinson’s previous PFL opposition. Still, opponents who are able to get inside have enjoyed some measure of success against Santos, and Wilkinson has the tools to do damage in close quarters. Additionally, Wilkinson is likely the superior grappler and is capable of landing heavy ground-and-pound from top position. There is always the chance that Santos hurts Wilkinson with a counter and pulls the upset, but the track record for big-name free agents on the downside of their careers is not good in the PFL. Wilkinson by KO/TKO is the pick.

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