Rashid Magomedov will carry an 11-fight winning streak into the cage. | Photo: G. Venga/Sherdog.com
Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:
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Legend
BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.
CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.
LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.
SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?
SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.
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BEST VALUE: Rashid Magomedov. With exceptional takedown defense and brilliantly technical grappling, Magomedov is sort of a nightmare matchup for Gilbert Burns who, despite his potential, is not yet ready to hang with the elite of the division. Both of these men are potential contenders, but Magomedov is a finished product and Burns still needs work. With Magomedov as low as -160, there is good value on the Dagestani kickboxer. You might also be able to make some money by betting on the fight to go the distance: You can get a line as low as -152. Burns is tough, and Magomedov has never been submitted, so a decision seems quite likely.
LIVE DOG: Piotr Hallmann. Alex Oliveira is very talented, and his lackluster performance against Joe Merritt in June seemed more the result of overtraining than anything else. Since Oliveira followed that fight with a nice four-month break, he will probably look more like the man that almost finished Burns than the one who struggled to finish Merritt. Even so, Hallmann is a viciously tough out for anyone in the division. He seemed very close to turning the tide against uber-prospect Magomed Mustafaev before a nasty cut prompted the doctor to stop the fight, and he took Gleison Tibau to a close split decision before that. Hallman is strong and tireless, and he is an underrated finisher. With Oliveira’s underdeveloped fundamentals, Hallman is a likely pick to win, which makes his +170 betting line very tempting.
SURE THING: Corey Anderson. He is very hittable, but it took a heck of a beating from Gian Villante to put Anderson down; and he has only gotten better since. Given Anderson’s stellar performance against the experienced Jan Blachowicz, Maldonado’s one-dimensional attack should not be enough to trouble him. Even Anderson’s cheapest line is -470, so this is probably not a fight on which you should risk your money, but I just cannot envision Maldonado getting the win.
CAN’T MISS: Anthony Birchak vs. Thomas Almeida. I would love to tell you that Magomedov is the fighter most worthy of your attention on this card -- obviously he is a personal favorite. However, there is absolutely no way that Almeida-Birchak is not fun, and there is a very good chance it ends up thrilling. Birchak is tough as nails and ready to slug with anyone, and Almeida is a knockout artist who only stands to get better. Watch this fight.
SMOKE BREAK: Viscardi Andrade vs. Gasan Umalatov. Not only is this the least relevant matchup on the card, but it will almost certainly be ugly. Umalatov’s defensive, slow style is the anathema to action, and Andrade is a fabulously clunky striker who throws himself wildly off-balance in his pursuit of the Hail Mary punch. They might grapple, too, but it seems likely that both men will negate one another. Use this fight as an opportunity to recharge yourself between Pedro Munhoz-Jimmie Rivera and Chas Skelly-Edimilson Souza, both of which are virtual guarantees to be fun.
Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he's not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment, and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.