Preview: UFC Fight Night 128 ‘Barboza vs. Lee’

Women’s Bantamweights Leslie Smith vs. Aspen Ladd
Odds: Ladd (-145), Smith (+125)

This should be a scrap. Both Smith and Ladd have come-forward striking styles predicated on overwhelming and eventually dispatching opponents with bunches of punches. Since her ill-fated encounter with Cristiane Justino two years ago, Smith has bounced back with signature performances versus Irene Aldana and Amanda Lemos. While landing continuous punch-kick combinations and blithely eating whatever return fire came her way, “The Peacemaker” showed off the toughness, grit, conditioning, and aggression that give her Skrap Pack camp its name. Smith is a purple belt under Cesar Gracie, but her ground game has yet to be showcased in UFC competition. She has yet to complete an octagon takedown and has not been tested by a serious wrestler in some time. That figures to change against Ladd, an undefeated 23-year-old prospect who mauled Lina Lansberg on the mat in her debut. Her game isn’t flashy, but the MMA Gold Team standout has been supremely effective through six pro fights. Ladd marches her foes down while firing salvos of crosses and hooks. Often that forward pressure and volume is enough, but if not, she will duck under for reactive shots when opponents get a little too ornery with their counter assault. On top is where Ladd really shines. She floats effortlessly in top position, quickly advances to a dominant position, and secures a submission or pounds away without mercy. Smith would likely win a pure standup battle behind her relentless aggression, but Ladd’s ability to control the location of the fight and her slick ground skills put her over the top. Ladd stays undefeated by decision.

Bantamweights Merab Dvalishvili vs. Ricky Simon
Odds: Simon (-160), Dvalishvili (+140)

Another pair of wrestlers square off here. Dvalishvili dropped his closely contested debut to Frankie Saenz, surprisingly out-wrestling the veteran to the tune of 11 takedowns to zero. But he could not hold Saenz down or produce much offense with them. Simon had a similar experience on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, taking down Donavon Frelow again and again but only banking a split decision. He didn’t receive a contract that night, so he turned around and captured the Legacy Fighting Alliance title with a five-round decision over UFC vet Chico Camus. There, again, he relied on his wrestling. In fights such as these, striking often decides it. I favor the Serra-Longo product over Simon in that facet. The trigger on Dvalishvili’s switch kick is light and it comes out quick, and he landed several nice counters on Saenz. Simon, meanwhile, looks less comfortable mixing it up and absorbed several flush shots in his DWTNCS tape. Dvalishvili pulls out a decision.

Welterweights Tony Martin vs. Keita Nakamura
Odds: Martin (-260), Nakamura (+220)

Martin just fought a similar stylistic opponent to Nakamura in Olivier Aubin-Mercier and lost a very tight decision. I think that bodes well for him here because he will be well-prepared to fight a low output, reasonably powerful southpaw, and “K-Taro” isn’t nearly the physical specimen “OAM” is. Martin is in the same vein as a striker: he hits hard but doesn’t usually push a high pace. He flicks out kicks with his lead left leg to all levels, and against southpaw Aubin-Mercier, a steady diet of right body kicks. Martin, like Nakamura, is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, but he showed in a slugfest with Johnny Case that his striking has made major strides. Nakamura is a rear-naked choke specialist, and backs it up with capable wrestling, landing two takedowns per fight on average. On the feet he will lull his opponent to sleep before pot-shotting with left kicks or left crosses, and the Japanese veteran has proven very durable. His sneaky double-leg can be equally surprising, but he isn’t a suffocating, immovable top player unless he gets the back. Martin will be able to stuff the takedowns and outpoint Nakamura on the feet for a decision.